MODEL VERDICT
MGM Resorts International (MGM)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.47 | $38.50 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.34 | $39.54 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.35 | $38.59 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.36 | $38.36 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.50 | $37.32 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $28.73 | -25.4% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $13.24 | -65.6% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 8 industry peers | $90.14 | +134.1% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $101.80 | +164.4% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 7 industry peers | $13.21 | -65.7% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 8 industry peers | $90.14 | +134.1% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $45.67 | +18.6% | 100% | 83 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 43× | 47× | 51× (Current) | 55× | 59× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $34 | $37 | $40 | $43 | $47 |
| Conservative (7%) | $35 | $38 | $41 | $45 | $48 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $36 | $39 | $43 | $46 | $49 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $37 | $41 | $44 | $47 | $51 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 28.45 | 16.53 | 8.57 | 67.06 | 23.54 |
| EV/EBIT | 33.33 | 26.87 | 8.36 | 91.11 | 29.30 |
| EV/EBITDA | 21.06 | 16.53 | 5.89 | 55.42 | 17.28 |
| P/FCF | 13.12 | 11.45 | 5.80 | 24.78 | 6.86 |
| P/FFO | 18.23 | 7.90 | 2.79 | 87.56 | 30.65 |
| P/TBV | 3.61 | 2.83 | 2.56 | 5.43 | 1.59 |
| P/AFFO | 20.76 | 13.53 | 3.30 | 62.31 | 21.73 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.40 | 2.58 | 1.37 | 3.67 | 0.86 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.43 | 1.05 | 0.55 | 3.17 | 0.95 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 16 valuation metrics, the model estimates MGM's fair value at $45.67 vs the current price of $38.50, implying +18.6% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 83/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $45.67 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $23.30 (P10) to $40.35 (P90), with a median of $29.28.
MGM's current P/E of 50.7x compares to the industry median of 17.4x (7 peers in the group). This represents a +190.9% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 28.5x over 6 years. Signal: High Premium.
36 analysts cover MGM with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $39.71 (range: $30.00 — $50.00), implying +3.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (17), Hold (17), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 83/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: MGM trades at the 7500th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (28.5×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that MGM's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.1σ, meaning margins are 0.1 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (6.5%), the model estimates fair value drops by 25590.0% to approximately $137. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.