MODEL VERDICT
McGrath RentCorp (MGRC)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.72 | $109.38 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.72 | $115.82 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $116.87 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $115.15 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $114.11 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $131.13 | +19.9% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 6 industry peers | $150.70 | +37.8% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $153.98 | +40.8% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 5 industry peers | $223.88 | +104.7% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 6 industry peers | $162.96 | +49.0% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 5 industry peers | $206.99 | +89.2% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 5 industry peers | $69.07 | -36.9% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 7 industry peers | $114.32 | +4.5% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 7 industry peers | $127.23 | +16.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $153.64 | +40.5% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 5 industry peers | $224.97 | +105.7% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $172.11 | +57.4% | 100% | 91 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 13× | 15× | 17× (Current) | 19× | 21× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $85 | $99 | $112 | $125 | $138 |
| Conservative (6%) | $87 | $101 | $114 | $128 | $141 |
| Base Case (8.8%) | $90 | $104 | $117 | $131 | $145 |
| Bull Case (12%) | $92 | $107 | $121 | $135 | $149 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 17.68 | 16.80 | 11.86 | 21.93 | 3.43 |
| EV/EBIT | 15.42 | 15.46 | 9.28 | 19.53 | 3.86 |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.87 | 9.52 | 7.97 | 12.41 | 1.43 |
| P/FCF | 59.07 | 20.46 | 8.22 | 229.53 | 95.51 |
| P/FFO | 9.63 | 10.02 | 8.10 | 10.69 | 1.00 |
| P/TBV | 3.57 | 3.56 | 2.54 | 5.37 | 0.90 |
| P/AFFO | 109.64 | 25.50 | 11.80 | 289.99 | 126.11 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.68 | 2.69 | 2.09 | 3.14 | 0.38 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.21 | 3.19 | 2.74 | 3.81 | 0.37 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates MGRC's fair value at $172.11 vs the current price of $109.38, implying +57.4% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 91/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $172.11 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $135.01 (P10) to $250.01 (P90), with a median of $173.69.
MGRC's current P/E of 17.2x compares to the industry median of 24.2x (6 peers in the group). This represents a -29.0% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 17.7x over 7 years. Signal: Discount.
5 analysts cover MGRC with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $140.00 (range: $140.00 — $140.00), implying +28.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (3), Hold (2), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 91/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that MGRC's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.1σ, meaning margins are 0.1 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (26.0%), the model estimates fair value drops by 6310.0% to approximately $178. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.