MODEL VERDICT
Mitek Systems, Inc. (MITK)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $14.54 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $14.29 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $15.15 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $15.07 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.57 | $13.55 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $13.77 | -5.3% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 6 industry peers | $10.68 | -26.5% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 5 industry peers | $4.00 | -72.5% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 7 industry peers | $17.00 | +16.9% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 5 industry peers | $5.96 | -59.0% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 7 industry peers | $16.29 | +12.0% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 4 industry peers | $0.21 | -98.6% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 7 industry peers | $16.20 | +11.4% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 7 industry peers | $15.27 | +5.0% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 5 industry peers | $3.87 | -73.4% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 7 industry peers | $16.72 | +15.0% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $13.41 | -7.8% | 100% | 82 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 65× | 71× | 77× (Current) | 83× | 89× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $13 | $14 | $15 | $16 | $17 |
| Conservative (5%) | $13 | $14 | $15 | $17 | $18 |
| Base Case (1.1%) | $12 | $14 | $15 | $16 | $17 |
| Bull Case (2%) | $13 | $14 | $15 | $16 | $17 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 101.79 | 98.69 | 55.53 | 161.07 | 36.43 |
| EV/EBIT | 53.15 | 55.37 | 23.40 | 79.08 | 21.64 |
| EV/EBITDA | 26.93 | 26.98 | 14.30 | 42.25 | 10.39 |
| P/FCF | 20.22 | 19.83 | 9.14 | 32.43 | 7.04 |
| P/FFO | 30.42 | 24.14 | 18.93 | 45.67 | 11.36 |
| P/TBV | 14.15 | 8.82 | 5.98 | 35.71 | 11.42 |
| P/AFFO | 32.71 | 25.83 | 19.80 | 48.00 | 12.57 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.25 | 2.80 | 2.06 | 5.72 | 1.27 |
| P/S Ratio | 4.30 | 3.51 | 2.76 | 7.46 | 1.93 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates MITK's fair value at $13.41 vs the current price of $14.54, implying -7.8% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 82/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $13.41 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $12.49 (P10) to $17.17 (P90), with a median of $14.80.
MITK's current P/E of 76.5x compares to the industry median of 21.0x (5 peers in the group). This represents a +263.6% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 101.8x over 6 years. Signal: High Premium.
14 analysts cover MITK with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $16.00 (range: $15.00 — $17.00), implying +10.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (11), Hold (3), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 82/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 10.4% is 6.5 percentage points above the 6-year average (3.9%), with a Z-score of +2.2σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$7. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that MITK's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +2.2σ, meaning margins are 2.2 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (3.9%), the model estimates fair value drops by 4990.0% to approximately $7. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.