Mitek Systems, Inc. (MITK)
Valuation Overview•Is Mitek Systems, Inc. Overvalued or Undervalued?
Commands a premium valuation multiple over its peers, likely pricing in superior execution.
Moderate quality score of 61/100, reflecting stable operating margins and manageable leverage.
Analysts remain cautious, with consensus price targets indicating limited room for upside expansion.
Verdict: Solid fundamental quality, though profitability presents a headwind.
Wall Street is cautious, forecasting potential downside alongside robust expected earnings growth. However, capital return yields remain modest, driven predominantly by aggressive share repurchases.
Returns capital exclusively via buybacks — no active dividend
MITK demonstrates adequate business quality with stable profitability. However, the balance sheet carries elevated leverage, requiring careful monitoring of debt servicing capabilities.
The company demonstrates solid revenue growth (7.5% 3Y CAGR) paired with highly explosive earnings growth (33.0% EPS 3Y CAGR). Operating efficiency remains adequate with margins around 14.5%.
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $54.8M | +4.4% | +7.5% | +12.1% | +21.6% | |
| EBITDA | $18.0M | — | +5.6% | — | — | |
| Net Income | $9.5M | +168.3% | +33.5% | — | +13.3% | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $0.20 | +175.0% | +33.0% | +1.1% | +9.0% | |
| Free Cash Flow | -$2.5M | +79.1% | +39.4% | +18.4% | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 88.0% | 85.9% | 86.3% | 87.2% |
| Operating Margin | 14.5% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 4.2% |
| Net Margin | 8.7% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 4.6% |
| FCF Margin | 23.5% | 21.8% | 21.9% | 19.4% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26Latest | $0.26 | $0.38 | +46.2% | ||
| Q1'26 | $0.18 | $0.26 | +42.9% | ||
| Q4'25 | $0.18 | $0.24 | +33.3% | ||
| Q3'25 | $0.18 | $0.22 | +22.2% | ||
| Q2'25 | $0.26 | $0.36 | +38.5% | ||
| Q1'25 | $0.13 | $0.15 | +15.4% | ||
| Q4'24 | $0.17 | $0.33 | +94.1% | ||
| Q3'24 | $0.26 | $0.25 | -3.8% |
Total return is +77.2% (1Y), outperforming the benchmark by +56.3%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | +74.3% | +67.0% | — |
| 1Y | +77.2% | +56.3% | — |
| 3YCAGR | +18.0% | -1.5% | — |
| 5YCAGR | -2.2% | -13.4% | — |
| 10YCAGR | +9.9% | -4.7% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 30.6x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about Mitek Systems, Inc. (MITK) valuation, health, and returns.
Based on peer relative multiples, Mitek Systems, Inc. appears Expensive versus peers compared to industry peers.
Mitek Systems, Inc. has multiple valuation anchors: Peer Relative Fair Value: $11.34 | Wall Street Analyst Target: $16.00 (implying -17.1% upside). A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
Mitek Systems, Inc. displays good financial health with a composite quality score of 61/100, supported by a Altman Z-Score of 2.9 (grey zone), Piotroski F-Score of 6/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 4.9%.
Mitek Systems, Inc. returns capital via buybacks instead of dividends, carrying a 0.5% buyback yield and reducing outstanding shares by -1.1% in the last 12 months.
Mitek Systems, Inc.'s current growth trajectory is Decelerating. The company achieved +4.4% 1Y revenue growth and +175.0% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of +7.5%.
Wall Street consensus is Buy based on 14 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 83% of recent quarters with a 7-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a -17.1% change from current levels.
Investment risks for Mitek Systems, Inc. include: -18.0% 1-year max drawdown, high beta (1.36x market volatility). Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 1.36x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.