MODEL VERDICT
TPG Mortgage Investment Trust Inc (MITT)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield 39 industry peers | $4.75 | -43.2% | 12% | B | Supplementary |
| Price / Book 42 industry peers | $12.11 | +44.9% | 8% | B | Model Driven |
| Industry Median P/E 29 industry peers | $15.00 | +79.4% | 5% | A | Peer Data |
| Forward P/E 35 analyst estimates | $8.53 | +2.0% | 5% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Price / Sales 40 industry peers | $8.55 | +2.3% | 2% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $7.68 | -8.2% | 100% | 69 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 4× | 5× | 7× (Current) | 9× | 11× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $5 | $6 | $9 | $11 | $14 |
| Conservative (5%) | $5 | $6 | $9 | $12 | $14 |
| Base Case (-29.7%) | $3 | $4 | $6 | $8 | $10 |
| Bull Case (-40%) | $3 | $4 | $5 | $7 | $8 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 4.40 | 4.59 | 1.94 | 6.47 | 1.98 |
| P/FCF | 8.74 | 6.33 | 3.51 | 24.98 | 7.36 |
| P/FFO | 3.34 | 3.40 | 1.51 | 5.12 | 1.80 |
| P/TBV | 0.31 | 0.26 | 0.14 | 0.58 | 0.14 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.31 | 0.26 | 0.14 | 0.58 | 0.14 |
| Div Yield | 0.12 | 0.12 | 0.06 | 0.16 | 0.03 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.23 | 2.61 | 1.73 | 5.36 | 1.45 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 15 valuation metrics, the model estimates MITT's fair value at $7.68 vs the current price of $8.36, implying -8.2% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 69/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $7.68 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $6.16 (P10) to $8.14 (P90), with a median of $7.09.
MITT's current P/E of 6.8x compares to the industry median of 12.2x (29 peers in the group). This represents a -44.3% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 4.4x over 4 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
18 analysts cover MITT with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $9.63 (range: $9.25 — $10.00), implying +15.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (11), Hold (6), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 69/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: MITT trades at the 1380th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (4.4×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for MITT.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.