MODEL VERDICT
McCormick & Company, Incorporated (MKC-V)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.32 | $50.25 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.28 | $51.78 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $54.28 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $53.37 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $53.26 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 11 analyst estimates | $34.25 | -31.8% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 9 industry peers | $39.32 | -21.8% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 9 industry peers | $50.24 | -0.0% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 11 industry peers | $34.75 | -30.8% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 10 industry peers | $53.94 | +7.3% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 11 industry peers | $45.25 | -10.0% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 4 industry peers | $5.87 | -88.3% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 11 industry peers | $29.13 | -42.0% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 11 industry peers | $24.61 | -51.0% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 9 industry peers | $50.24 | -0.0% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 11 industry peers | $34.75 | -30.8% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $51.53 | +2.5% | 100% | 89 | FAIRLY VALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 13× | 15× | 17× (Current) | 19× | 21× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $39 | $45 | $51 | $57 | $63 |
| Conservative (5%) | $40 | $46 | $52 | $58 | $65 |
| Base Case (1.1%) | $39 | $44 | $50 | $56 | $62 |
| Bull Case (1%) | $39 | $45 | $51 | $56 | $62 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 29.98 | 32.61 | 23.21 | 34.38 | 4.49 |
| EV/EBIT | 25.76 | 27.54 | 20.03 | 29.82 | 3.99 |
| EV/EBITDA | 22.47 | 24.28 | 16.79 | 25.93 | 3.74 |
| P/FCF | 34.31 | 31.52 | 18.85 | 57.00 | 13.15 |
| P/FFO | 23.80 | 25.16 | 17.94 | 28.19 | 3.99 |
| P/AFFO | 32.34 | 33.36 | 22.93 | 38.80 | 5.66 |
| P/B Ratio | 4.90 | 4.72 | 3.18 | 6.64 | 1.43 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.56 | 3.50 | 2.68 | 4.59 | 0.77 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates MKC-V's fair value at $51.53 vs the current price of $50.25, implying +2.5% upside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 89/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $51.53 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $49.41 (P10) to $60.81 (P90), with a median of $54.98.
MKC-V's current P/E of 17.2x compares to the industry median of 17.1x (9 peers in the group). This represents a +0.0% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 30.0x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
21 analysts cover MKC-V with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $86.33 (range: $82.00 — $94.00), implying +71.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (3), Hold (14), Sell (4), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 89/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (15), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that MKC-V's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.2σ, meaning margins are 0.2 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (11.8%), the model estimates fair value drops by 7880.0% to approximately $90. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.