MODEL VERDICT
3M Company (MMM)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $142.50 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $145.99 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $154.55 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $151.24 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $150.32 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 12 analyst estimates | $183.89 | +29.0% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 12 industry peers | $176.03 | +23.5% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 12 industry peers | $179.51 | +26.0% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 12 industry peers | $70.48 | -50.5% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 12 industry peers | $196.28 | +37.7% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 12 industry peers | $64.60 | -54.7% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 12 industry peers | $226.58 | +59.0% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 12 industry peers | $212.95 | +49.4% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 12 industry peers | $179.29 | +25.8% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 12 industry peers | $70.48 | -50.5% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $137.73 | -3.4% | 100% | 84 | FAIRLY VALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 20× | 22× | 24× (Current) | 26× | 28× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $122 | $135 | $147 | $159 | $171 |
| Conservative (5%) | $126 | $139 | $151 | $164 | $176 |
| Base Case (-8.5%) | $110 | $121 | $132 | $143 | $154 |
| Bull Case (-12%) | $106 | $117 | $127 | $138 | $149 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 17.13 | 16.36 | 9.85 | 26.68 | 5.58 |
| EV/EBIT | 14.37 | 13.43 | 10.18 | 18.90 | 3.13 |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.51 | 11.87 | 10.66 | 17.28 | 2.23 |
| P/FCF | 34.60 | 14.86 | 10.00 | 111.77 | 38.51 |
| P/FFO | 13.04 | 12.39 | 7.48 | 20.90 | 4.47 |
| P/AFFO | 16.55 | 15.72 | 9.71 | 24.90 | 5.20 |
| P/B Ratio | 10.23 | 8.52 | 3.85 | 18.31 | 5.85 |
| Div Yield | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 0.07 | 0.02 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.55 | 2.64 | 1.66 | 3.46 | 0.58 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates MMM's fair value at $137.73 vs the current price of $142.50, implying -3.4% downside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 84/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $137.73 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $130.49 (P10) to $156.26 (P90), with a median of $142.82.
MMM's current P/E of 23.8x compares to the industry median of 29.9x (12 peers in the group). This represents a -20.6% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 17.1x over 6 years. Signal: Discount.
33 analysts cover MMM with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $166.75 (range: $136.00 — $190.00), implying +17.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (15), Hold (17), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 84/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: MMM trades at the 3750th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (17.1×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that MMM's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.3σ, meaning margins are 0.3 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (12.3%), the model estimates fair value drops by 2030.0% to approximately $114. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.