MODEL VERDICT
MakeMyTrip Limited (MMYT)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $48.20 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $46.02 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.58 | $51.02 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $46.91 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $40.85 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 5 analyst estimates | $8.95 | -81.4% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 6 industry peers | $21.10 | -56.2% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $20.61 | -57.2% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 5 industry peers | $20.04 | -58.4% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 6 industry peers | $18.64 | -61.3% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 5 industry peers | $20.69 | -57.1% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 6 industry peers | $29.96 | -37.8% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 6 industry peers | $27.60 | -42.7% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $20.54 | -57.4% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 5 industry peers | $19.95 | -58.6% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $65.02 | +34.9% | 100% | 79 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 48× | 53× | 58× (Current) | 63× | 68× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $41 | $46 | $50 | $54 | $59 |
| Conservative (7%) | $42 | $47 | $51 | $56 | $60 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $44 | $48 | $53 | $58 | $62 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $45 | $50 | $55 | $59 | $64 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBIT | 447.56 | 118.98 | 68.76 | 1154.94 | 613.12 |
| EV/EBITDA | 102.09 | 101.68 | 62.13 | 142.44 | 40.16 |
| P/FCF | 139.16 | 85.89 | 43.98 | 340.88 | 138.36 |
| P/FFO | 153.04 | 76.96 | 54.40 | 327.76 | 151.73 |
| P/TBV | 17.84 | 17.38 | 8.25 | 26.39 | 5.97 |
| P/AFFO | 251.45 | 79.88 | 55.75 | 618.72 | 318.29 |
| P/B Ratio | 5.38 | 3.60 | 1.75 | 11.89 | 3.49 |
| P/S Ratio | 10.61 | 9.61 | 4.90 | 18.11 | 5.08 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 25 valuation metrics, the model estimates MMYT's fair value at $65.02 vs the current price of $48.20, implying +34.9% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 79/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $65.02 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $37.67 (P10) to $100.92 (P90), with a median of $65.07.
MMYT's current P/E of 58.1x compares to the industry median of 24.8x (6 peers in the group). This represents a +133.8% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: High Premium.
11 analysts cover MMYT with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $91.00 (range: $42.00 — $119.00), implying +88.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (8), Hold (3), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 79/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for MMYT.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.