MODEL VERDICT
Monster Beverage Corporation (MNST)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $77.12 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $78.23 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $76.72 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $74.92 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $75.72 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 5 analyst estimates | $40.96 | -46.9% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 5 industry peers | $45.69 | -40.8% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 5 industry peers | $48.73 | -36.8% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 5 industry peers | $54.66 | -29.1% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| Peg Ratio 5 industry peers | $34.42 | -55.4% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 5 industry peers | $27.52 | -64.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 5 industry peers | $20.41 | -73.5% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 5 industry peers | $48.55 | -37.0% | 2% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $53.03 | -31.2% | 100% | 80 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 34× | 37× | 40× (Current) | 43× | 46× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (3%) | $68 | $74 | $80 | $86 | $92 |
| Conservative (5%) | $69 | $76 | $82 | $88 | $94 |
| Base Case (8.0%) | $71 | $78 | $84 | $90 | $96 |
| Bull Case (11%) | $73 | $80 | $86 | $92 | $99 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 37.32 | 37.22 | 31.47 | 45.32 | 4.33 |
| EV/EBIT | 28.66 | 28.72 | 24.20 | 33.33 | 3.09 |
| EV/EBITDA | 27.65 | 27.84 | 23.19 | 32.09 | 3.02 |
| P/FCF | 45.61 | 39.62 | 32.83 | 80.13 | 17.63 |
| P/FFO | 35.34 | 34.79 | 29.73 | 43.21 | 4.47 |
| P/TBV | 14.77 | 13.53 | 11.32 | 19.44 | 3.15 |
| P/AFFO | 39.86 | 38.86 | 32.83 | 52.02 | 6.71 |
| P/B Ratio | 8.41 | 8.33 | 7.41 | 9.58 | 0.81 |
| P/S Ratio | 8.75 | 8.56 | 7.11 | 10.76 | 1.21 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 21 valuation metrics, the model estimates MNST's fair value at $53.03 vs the current price of $77.12, implying -31.2% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 80/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $53.03 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $47.99 (P10) to $55.21 (P90), with a median of $51.56.
MNST's current P/E of 39.8x compares to the industry median of 25.1x (5 peers in the group). This represents a +58.3% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 37.3x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
43 analysts cover MNST with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $85.38 (range: $70.00 — $100.00), implying +10.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (22), Hold (17), Sell (3), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 80/100, based on: data completeness (21), peer quality (22), historical depth (20), earnings stability (15), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: MNST trades at the 6920th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (37.3×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that MNST's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.2σ, meaning margins are 0.2 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (24.0%), the model estimates fair value drops by 200.0% to approximately $76. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.