Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$85.30
→
Intrinsic$38.52
-55%
$26.77$38.52$55.38
Current price reflects execution expectations above 13% growth — not unreasonable for quality businesses.
Range: Bear $27 → Bull $55. Current price implies expectations above the base case, closer to bull expectations.
Current price reflects assumptions at the upper end of our valuation range (bull case: $55).
Bull Case
- Bull case ($55) with 15% growth, 8% discount rate
- Conservative 13% growth assumption is achievable based on track record
Bear Case
- Bear case ($27) implies 69% downside at 10% growth, 12% discount
- Trading 55% above base case — execution must exceed assumptions to justify
- Price exceeds bull case ($55) — requires exceptional execution
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📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate12.5%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate9.5%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$0.00TTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.