MODEL VERDICT
Modine Manufacturing Company (MOD)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $266.83 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $251.70 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $243.71 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $238.14 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $241.46 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $158.56 | -40.6% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 9 industry peers | $186.36 | -30.2% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 8 industry peers | $180.68 | -32.3% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 8 industry peers | $104.79 | -60.7% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 9 industry peers | $158.38 | -40.6% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 8 industry peers | $119.58 | -55.2% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $218.08 | -18.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $200.66 | -24.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 9 industry peers | $188.66 | -29.3% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 8 industry peers | $103.21 | -61.3% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $146.47 | -45.1% | 100% | 78 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 66× | 72× | 78× (Current) | 84× | 90× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $235 | $256 | $277 | $299 | $320 |
| Conservative (7%) | $240 | $262 | $284 | $306 | $328 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $248 | $271 | $293 | $316 | $339 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $256 | $279 | $303 | $326 | $349 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 22.99 | 20.59 | 4.67 | 39.04 | 15.42 |
| EV/EBIT | 21.18 | 24.70 | 6.73 | 31.71 | 9.84 |
| EV/EBITDA | 13.53 | 12.95 | 4.30 | 22.11 | 7.43 |
| P/FCF | 35.62 | 49.09 | 4.42 | 55.66 | 24.72 |
| P/FFO | 14.92 | 11.85 | 2.44 | 28.45 | 10.90 |
| P/TBV | 8.07 | 6.10 | 1.54 | 18.41 | 6.02 |
| P/AFFO | 50.12 | 30.29 | 4.50 | 177.24 | 64.52 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.86 | 2.28 | 0.73 | 8.19 | 3.19 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.15 | 0.51 | 0.18 | 2.79 | 1.12 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates MOD's fair value at $146.47 vs the current price of $266.83, implying -45.1% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 78/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $146.47 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $120.04 (P10) to $159.59 (P90), with a median of $139.45.
MOD's current P/E of 78.0x compares to the industry median of 52.8x (8 peers in the group). This represents a +47.7% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 23.0x over 5 years. Signal: High Premium.
12 analysts cover MOD with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $245.60 (range: $210.00 — $265.00), implying -8.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (9), Hold (3), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 78/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 3.4% is 6.2 percentage points above the 5-year average (5.0%), with a Z-score of +1.1σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$115. (2) Multiple compression: MOD trades at the 9570th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (23.0×) would imply significant downside. (3) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that MOD's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.1σ, meaning margins are 1.1 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 5-year mean (5.0%), the model estimates fair value drops by 5710.0% to approximately $115. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.