MODEL VERDICT
Motorcar Parts of America, Inc. (MPAA)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 35 analyst estimates | $11.39 | +5.1% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 32 industry peers | $20.04 | +84.9% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 30 industry peers | $26.78 | +147.0% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 30 industry peers | $14.51 | +33.9% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 31 industry peers | $26.03 | +140.1% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 37 industry peers | $29.70 | +174.0% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 37 industry peers | $28.03 | +158.6% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 31 industry peers | $26.82 | +147.4% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $22.67 | +109.2% | 100% | 75 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBIT | 18.14 | 12.24 | 7.97 | 34.75 | 11.35 |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.79 | 9.13 | 6.48 | 23.66 | 6.89 |
| P/FCF | 24.42 | 6.90 | 3.90 | 79.99 | 37.08 |
| P/FFO | 51.73 | 16.69 | 10.15 | 163.40 | 74.63 |
| P/TBV | 0.98 | 0.96 | 0.53 | 1.55 | 0.40 |
| P/AFFO | 26.92 | 18.27 | 17.72 | 44.76 | 15.45 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.96 | 0.94 | 0.52 | 1.48 | 0.37 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.48 | 0.36 | 0.21 | 0.88 | 0.25 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 21 valuation metrics, the model estimates MPAA's fair value at $22.67 vs the current price of $10.84, implying +109.2% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 75/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $22.67 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $17.68 (P10) to $34.01 (P90), with a median of $24.61.
MPAA's current P/E of -10.9x compares to the industry median of 17.1x (25 peers in the group). This represents a -163.9% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
6 analysts cover MPAA with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $20.00 (range: $20.00 — $20.00), implying +84.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (5), Hold (1), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 75/100, based on: data completeness (21), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for MPAA.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.