Medical Properties Trust, Inc. (MPT)
Valuation Overview•Is Medical Properties Trust, Inc. Overvalued or Undervalued?
Trading at a discount across both intrinsic cash flow and relative peer multiples, indicating a strong margin of safety.
Moderate quality score of 64/100, reflecting stable operating margins and manageable leverage.
Analysts remain cautious, with consensus price targets indicating limited room for upside expansion.
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Verdict: Solid fundamental quality, though profitability presents a headwind.
Wall Street is cautious, forecasting potential downside alongside robust expected earnings growth. This outlook is strongly supported by highly attractive capital returns, driven by a balanced mix of reliable dividends and share buybacks.
MPT demonstrates adequate business quality with stable profitability. However, the balance sheet carries elevated leverage, requiring careful monitoring of debt servicing capabilities.
The company is facing top-line contraction (-14.3% 3Y CAGR) paired with stable bottom-line earnings. This growth is supported by elite operational efficiency, sustaining an impressive 55.1% operating margin.
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $250.1M | -2.4% | -14.3% | -4.9% | +8.2% | |
| EBITDA | $185.8M | — | -15.6% | — | — | |
| Net Income | $201.6M | +88.5% | — | — | — | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $0.34 | +88.6% | — | — | — | |
| Free Cash Flow | $0.00 | -6.0% | — | — | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 82.5% | 96.2% | 96.7% | 97.6% |
| Operating Margin | 55.1% | 34.6% | 47.2% | 58.4% |
| Net Margin | 24.1% | -111.5% | -46.7% | 5.6% |
| FCF Margin | 20.2% | 35.5% | 20.6% | -103.1% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1'26Latest | $0.15 | $0.18 | +20.0% | ||
| Q4'25 | $0.16 | $-0.13 | -181.3% | ||
| Q3'25 | $-0.00 | $-0.16 | -11088.8% | ||
| Q2'25 | $0.15 | $-0.20 | -233.3% | ||
| Q1'25 | $0.04 | $-0.69 | -1825.0% | ||
| Q4'24 | $0.20 | $-1.34 | -770.0% | ||
| Q3'24 | $0.04 | $-0.54 | -1314.3% | ||
| Q2'24 | $0.09 | $0.24 | +166.9% |
Total return is +16.3% (1Y), outperforming the benchmark by +6.6%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | +13.6% | +6.0% | — |
| 1Y | +16.3% | +6.6% | +7.1% |
| 3YCAGR | +9.9% | -9.1% | +24.0% |
| 5YCAGR | -15.9% | -25.3% | +16.0% |
| 10YCAGR | +1.1% | -12.0% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 29.9x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about Medical Properties Trust, Inc. (MPT) valuation, health, and returns.
Medical Properties Trust, Inc. is estimated to be undervalued under our discounted cash flow framework. relative multiples indicate the stock is Cheap versus peers compared to industry peers. undervalued (implying +83.8% upside to DCF intrinsic value of $10.11)
Medical Properties Trust, Inc. has multiple valuation anchors: DCF Intrinsic Value: $10.11 | Peer Relative Fair Value: $8.23 | Wall Street Analyst Target: $2.25 (implying -59.1% upside). A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
Medical Properties Trust, Inc. displays good financial health with a composite quality score of 64/100, supported by a Piotroski F-Score of 3/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 3.0%.
Medical Properties Trust, Inc. pays a 17.8% dividend yield, covered by a 0% payout ratio with 0 years of growth, supplemented by a 2.2% buyback yield.
Medical Properties Trust, Inc.'s current growth trajectory is Accelerating. The company achieved -2.4% 1Y revenue growth and +88.6% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of -14.3%.
Wall Street consensus is Hold based on 28 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 25% of recent quarters with a 1-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a -59.1% change from current levels.
Investment risks for Medical Properties Trust, Inc. include: -15.1% 1-year max drawdown. Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 0.12x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.