MODEL VERDICT
Marine Products Corporation (MPX)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 11 analyst estimates | $9.67 | +19.7% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 11 industry peers | $7.47 | -7.5% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $9.10 | +12.6% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 11 industry peers | $5.96 | -26.2% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 9 industry peers | $8.77 | +8.5% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 11 industry peers | $7.42 | -8.2% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 12 industry peers | $7.63 | -5.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 12 industry peers | $4.85 | -40.0% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 7 industry peers | $9.10 | +12.6% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 11 industry peers | $5.96 | -26.2% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $10.45 | +29.3% | 100% | 75 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 20× | 22× | 24× (Current) | 26× | 28× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $7 | $7 | $8 | $9 | $9 |
| Conservative (5%) | $7 | $8 | $8 | $9 | $10 |
| Base Case (-10.0%) | $6 | $7 | $7 | $8 | $8 |
| Bull Case (-14%) | $6 | $6 | $7 | $7 | $8 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 17.53 | 17.78 | 9.42 | 26.55 | 6.88 |
| EV/EBIT | 12.58 | 13.79 | 6.60 | 18.96 | 4.71 |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.60 | 12.24 | 6.03 | 17.55 | 4.27 |
| P/FCF | 13.81 | 13.98 | 8.21 | 20.52 | 5.02 |
| P/FFO | 15.26 | 15.02 | 8.69 | 23.05 | 5.44 |
| P/TBV | 4.01 | 3.26 | 2.48 | 6.68 | 1.77 |
| P/AFFO | 17.32 | 17.52 | 9.90 | 25.56 | 5.96 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.85 | 3.16 | 2.40 | 6.35 | 1.66 |
| Div Yield | 0.06 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.14 | 0.04 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.39 | 1.31 | 1.00 | 2.06 | 0.37 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates MPX's fair value at $10.45 vs the current price of $8.08, implying +29.3% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 75/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $10.45 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $6.90 (P10) to $8.42 (P90), with a median of $7.66.
MPX's current P/E of 24.5x compares to the industry median of 27.6x (7 peers in the group). This represents a -11.2% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 17.5x over 7 years. Signal: Slightly Cheap.
4 analysts cover MPX with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is N/A (range: N/A — N/A), implying N/A upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (0), Hold (4), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 75/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: --15 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: MPX trades at the 1430th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (17.5×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that MPX's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -2.0σ, meaning margins are 2.0 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (10.6%), the model estimates fair value drops by 6450.0% to approximately $13. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.