MODEL VERDICT
Meridian Corporation (MRBK)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 290 industry peers | $21.50 | +5.1% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 308 industry peers | $19.55 | -4.4% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 308 bank peers | $22.72 | +11.1% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 234 industry peers | $20.45 | +0.0% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 290 industry peers | $21.50 | +5.1% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 282 analyst estimates | $24.90 | +21.8% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $19.42 | -5.0% | 100% | 87 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 10× | 12× | 14× (Current) | 16× | 18× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (5%) | $15 | $18 | $21 | $24 | $27 |
| Conservative (8%) | $16 | $19 | $22 | $25 | $28 |
| Base Case (12.1%) | $16 | $20 | $23 | $26 | $29 |
| Bull Case (16%) | $17 | $20 | $24 | $27 | $30 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 9.56 | 9.46 | 4.86 | 13.42 | 3.20 |
| EV/EBIT | 14.26 | 13.81 | 6.19 | 20.69 | 5.53 |
| EV/EBITDA | 13.37 | 12.49 | 6.91 | 19.38 | 4.45 |
| P/FCF | 8.01 | 7.77 | 1.43 | 17.07 | 5.95 |
| P/FFO | 8.87 | 8.27 | 5.28 | 11.52 | 2.28 |
| P/TBV | 1.10 | 1.06 | 0.92 | 1.42 | 0.18 |
| P/AFFO | 9.97 | 9.24 | 5.45 | 13.90 | 2.79 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.07 | 1.01 | 0.90 | 1.38 | 0.17 |
| Div Yield | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 0.06 | 0.02 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.21 | 1.42 | 0.78 | 1.52 | 0.33 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates MRBK's fair value at $19.42 vs the current price of $20.45, implying -5.0% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 87/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $19.42 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $17.69 (P10) to $21.16 (P90), with a median of $19.37.
MRBK's current P/E of 14.1x compares to the industry median of 14.8x (290 peers in the group). This represents a -4.9% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 9.6x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
4 analysts cover MRBK with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $22.00 (range: $22.00 — $22.00), implying +7.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (3), Hold (1), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 87/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: MRBK trades at the 4380th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (9.6×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for MRBK.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.