MODEL VERDICT
Marten Transport, Ltd. (MRTN)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.14 | $15.15 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.14 | $14.80 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $14.87 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $13.75 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $14.01 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $10.15 | -33.0% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $19.00 | +25.4% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $9.32 | -38.5% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 7 industry peers | $4.87 | -67.9% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $19.36 | +27.8% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $15.78 | +4.2% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $9.07 | -40.1% | 2% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $13.74 | -9.3% | 100% | 56 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 60× | 66× | 72× (Current) | 78× | 84× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $13 | $14 | $15 | $17 | $18 |
| Conservative (5%) | $13 | $15 | $16 | $17 | $19 |
| Base Case (-24.2%) | $10 | $11 | $11 | $12 | $13 |
| Bull Case (-33%) | $8 | $9 | $10 | $11 | $12 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 28.18 | 20.51 | 14.65 | 54.19 | 15.84 |
| EV/EBIT | 23.17 | 17.02 | 11.86 | 44.42 | 12.33 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.21 | 6.97 | 6.06 | 8.66 | 0.93 |
| P/FFO | 8.10 | 7.61 | 7.32 | 9.18 | 0.78 |
| P/TBV | 1.99 | 2.20 | 1.21 | 2.31 | 0.42 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.99 | 2.20 | 1.21 | 2.31 | 0.42 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.38 | 1.40 | 1.05 | 1.64 | 0.19 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 19 valuation metrics, the model estimates MRTN's fair value at $13.74 vs the current price of $15.15, implying -9.3% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 56/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $13.74 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $10.14 (P10) to $12.17 (P90), with a median of $11.14.
MRTN's current P/E of 72.1x compares to the industry median of 44.4x (6 peers in the group). This represents a +62.6% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 28.2x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
13 analysts cover MRTN with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $22.50 (range: $20.00 — $25.00), implying +48.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (6), Hold (7), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 56/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: --15 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: MRTN trades at the 6250th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (28.2×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that MRTN's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -1.9σ, meaning margins are 1.9 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (7.2%), the model estimates fair value drops by 4150.0% to approximately $21. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.