MODEL VERDICT
Morgan Stanley (MS) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.34 | $166.47 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.34 | $175.41 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.34 | $171.15 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.31 | $177.89 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $186.32 | Below threshold | -2.1% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 36 industry peers | $218.68 | +31.4% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 43 industry peers | $238.65 | +43.4% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 40 bank peers | $224.59 | +34.9% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 23 industry peers | $251.70 | +51.2% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 37 industry peers | $221.17 | +32.9% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 35 analyst estimates | $166.47 | +0.0% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $175.39 | +5.4% | 100% | 85 | SLIGHTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 17× | 19× | 21× (Current) | 23× | 25× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $140 | $156 | $173 | $189 | $206 |
| Conservative (6%) | $143 | $160 | $177 | $193 | $210 |
| Base Case (8.9%) | $147 | $164 | $182 | $199 | $216 |
| Bull Case (12%) | $151 | $169 | $187 | $205 | $223 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 12.67 | 12.22 | 8.38 | 18.00 | 3.43 |
| EV/EBIT | 26.11 | 25.67 | 20.16 | 36.73 | 5.30 |
| EV/EBITDA | 20.65 | 20.33 | 16.60 | 27.00 | 3.29 |
| P/FCF | 6.81 | 5.62 | 2.15 | 12.67 | 5.36 |
| P/FFO | 8.94 | 9.25 | 6.51 | 11.50 | 1.92 |
| P/TBV | 1.70 | 1.89 | 0.95 | 2.46 | 0.58 |
| P/AFFO | 10.90 | 10.51 | 7.90 | 15.46 | 2.89 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.36 | 1.44 | 0.85 | 1.92 | 0.39 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.06 | 1.96 | 1.44 | 3.08 | 0.55 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates MS's fair value at $175.39 vs the current price of $166.47, implying +5.4% upside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Undervalued. Confidence: 85/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $175.39 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $147.46 (P10) to $210.36 (P90), with a median of $176.92.
MS's current P/E of 20.9x compares to the industry median of 27.5x (36 peers in the group). This represents a -23.9% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 12.7x over 7 years. Signal: Discount.
50 analysts cover MS with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $196.00 (range: $165.00 — $220.00), implying +17.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (27), Hold (23), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 85/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: MS trades at the 3610th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (12.7×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that MS's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.8σ, meaning margins are 0.8 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (17.0%), the model estimates fair value drops by 2070.0% to approximately $132. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.