MODEL VERDICT
Middlesex Water Company (MSEX)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.32 | $50.93 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $53.50 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $51.31 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $50.59 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $55.85 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 5 industry peers | $49.42 | -3.0% | 22% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBITDA 5 industry peers | $37.57 | -26.2% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 5 industry peers | $47.01 | -7.7% | 18% | B | Supplementary |
| Forward P/E 5 analyst estimates | $45.97 | -9.7% | 12% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBIT 5 industry peers | $39.91 | -21.6% | 7% | B+ | Peer Data |
| Peg Ratio 3 industry peers | $9.79 | -80.8% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 4 industry peers | $40.06 | -21.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Earnings Yield 5 industry peers | $49.42 | -3.0% | 4% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $53.82 | +5.7% | 100% | 74 | SLIGHTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 18× | 20× | 22× (Current) | 24× | 26× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $43 | $48 | $53 | $58 | $63 |
| Conservative (5%) | $45 | $50 | $55 | $59 | $64 |
| Base Case (1.6%) | $43 | $48 | $53 | $58 | $62 |
| Bull Case (2%) | $43 | $48 | $53 | $58 | $63 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 33.69 | 32.92 | 21.31 | 58.12 | 12.38 |
| EV/EBIT | 36.92 | 36.53 | 20.71 | 66.96 | 15.47 |
| EV/EBITDA | 24.41 | 23.48 | 15.33 | 40.75 | 8.40 |
| P/FFO | 20.03 | 19.93 | 12.15 | 33.44 | 7.00 |
| P/TBV | 3.26 | 3.28 | 1.85 | 5.73 | 1.28 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.26 | 3.28 | 1.85 | 5.73 | 1.28 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 8.14 | 7.95 | 4.70 | 14.80 | 3.38 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 21 valuation metrics, the model estimates MSEX's fair value at $53.82 vs the current price of $50.93, implying +5.7% upside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Undervalued. Confidence: 74/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $53.82 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $50.31 (P10) to $65.80 (P90), with a median of $57.85.
MSEX's current P/E of 21.6x compares to the industry median of 20.9x (5 peers in the group). This represents a +3.1% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 33.7x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
4 analysts cover MSEX with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $53.50 (range: $52.00 — $55.00), implying +5.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (3), Hold (1), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 74/100, based on: data completeness (22), peer quality (22), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that MSEX's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.7σ, meaning margins are 0.7 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (24.0%), the model estimates fair value drops by 6950.0% to approximately $86. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.