Middlesex Water Company (MSEX)
Valuation Overview•Is Middlesex Water Company Overvalued or Undervalued?
Commands a premium valuation multiple over its peers, likely pricing in superior execution.
Fragile underlying quality score of 35/100; weak margins or elevated debt leverage warrant caution.
Wall Street forecasts a balanced outlook with consensus price targets near the current price.
Verdict: Mixed fundamental profile with offsetting strengths and weaknesses.
Wall Street is broadly bullish, projecting solid upside. This is paired with healthy capital returns, anchored by a strong, well-covered dividend yield.
MSEX struggles with subpar profitability and pressured margins. However, this is severely offset by a highly leveraged balance sheet (Debt/EBITDA > 4.0x) and elevated financial risk.
The company demonstrates solid revenue growth (6.2% 3Y CAGR) however, earnings have severely contracted over the same period. This growth is supported by elite operational efficiency, sustaining an impressive 28.1% operating margin.
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $48.7M | +1.5% | +6.2% | +6.6% | +4.4% | |
| EBITDA | $13.1M | — | +5.1% | — | — | |
| Net Income | $10.6M | -3.4% | +0.3% | — | +7.9% | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $0.00 | -4.5% | -0.4% | +1.6% | +6.8% | |
| Free Cash Flow | $11.7M | -112.4% | -4.0% | +8.4% | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 33.3% | 47.0% | 48.2% | 49.0% |
| Operating Margin | 28.1% | 26.4% | 26.3% | 27.1% |
| Net Margin | 22.1% | 21.4% | 23.1% | 22.6% |
| FCF Margin | -9.7% | -16.0% | -19.8% | -20.0% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26Latest | $0.57 | $0.57 | +0.0% | ||
| Q1'26 | $0.49 | $0.46 | -6.1% | ||
| Q4'25 | $0.86 | $0.77 | -10.5% | ||
| Q3'25 | $0.68 | $0.60 | -11.8% | ||
| Q2'25 | $0.55 | $0.53 | -3.6% | ||
| Q1'25 | $0.36 | $0.49 | +36.1% | ||
| Q4'24 | $0.68 | $0.80 | +17.6% | ||
| Q3'24 | $0.64 | $0.59 | -7.8% |
Total return is -4.8% (1Y), lagging the benchmark by -29.8%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | +5.0% | -4.3% | — |
| 1Y | -4.8% | -29.8% | +2.5% |
| 3YCAGR | -12.2% | -31.8% | +4.9% |
| 5YCAGR | -7.0% | -20.2% | +7.6% |
| 10YCAGR | +4.9% | -8.7% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 31.3x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about Middlesex Water Company (MSEX) valuation, health, and returns.
Based on peer relative multiples, Middlesex Water Company appears Slightly expensive versus peers compared to industry peers.
Middlesex Water Company has multiple valuation anchors: Peer Relative Fair Value: $44.12 | Wall Street Analyst Target: $55.00 (implying +5.6% upside). A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
Middlesex Water Company displays weak financial health with a composite quality score of 35/100, supported by a Piotroski F-Score of 4/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 4.7%.
Middlesex Water Company pays a 2.6% dividend yield, covered by a 58% payout ratio with 22 years of growth, supplemented by a 0.0% buyback yield.
Middlesex Water Company's current growth trajectory is Decelerating. The company achieved +1.5% 1Y revenue growth and -4.5% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of +6.2%.
Wall Street consensus is Buy based on 4 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 25% of recent quarters with a -5-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a +5.6% change from current levels.
Investment risks for Middlesex Water Company include: -21.6% 1-year max drawdown. Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of -0.09x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.