MODEL VERDICT
Strategy Inc (MSTR)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $177.17 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $171.02 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $166.52 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $143.54 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $128.64 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 2 analyst estimates | $6731.40 | +3699.4% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Price / Sales 11 industry peers | $21.30 | -88.0% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $5369.69 | +2930.8% | 100% | 57 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 43.68 | 43.21 | 23.92 | 63.90 | 19.99 |
| P/FFO | 190.33 | 44.98 | 23.58 | 647.77 | 305.25 |
| P/AFFO | 472.06 | 60.15 | 23.74 | 1744.19 | 848.35 |
| P/B Ratio | 4.32 | 3.95 | 2.75 | 6.80 | 1.68 |
| P/S Ratio | 24.16 | 7.83 | 2.93 | 120.33 | 42.90 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 6 valuation metrics, the model estimates MSTR's fair value at $5369.69 vs the current price of $177.17, implying +2930.8% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 57/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $5369.69 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $4304.95 (P10) to $5700.24 (P90), with a median of $4981.48.
MSTR's current P/E of -29.2x compares to the industry median of 28.6x (4 peers in the group). This represents a -202.3% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 43.7x over 3 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
29 analysts cover MSTR with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $280.83 (range: $185.00 — $450.00), implying +58.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (18), Hold (8), Sell (3), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 57/100, based on: data completeness (6), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for MSTR.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.