MODEL VERDICT
ArcelorMittal S.A. (MT)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.47 | $56.85 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.36 | $59.71 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $62.06 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $61.57 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $60.64 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $81.76 | +43.8% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 9 industry peers | $107.15 | +88.5% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 8 industry peers | $117.17 | +106.1% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 8 industry peers | $18.94 | -66.7% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 9 industry peers | $90.59 | +59.3% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 8 industry peers | $10.86 | -80.9% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 10 industry peers | $117.15 | +106.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 10 industry peers | $116.55 | +105.0% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 8 industry peers | $117.17 | +106.1% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 8 industry peers | $18.12 | -68.1% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $65.95 | +16.0% | 100% | 78 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 10× | 12× | 14× (Current) | 16× | 18× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $43 | $51 | $60 | $68 | $77 |
| Conservative (7%) | $44 | $53 | $61 | $70 | $79 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $45 | $54 | $63 | $72 | $81 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $47 | $56 | $65 | $75 | $84 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 11.02 | 11.09 | 1.72 | 26.05 | 9.88 |
| EV/EBIT | 11.40 | 8.60 | 2.26 | 30.57 | 9.84 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.43 | 5.65 | 2.02 | 11.21 | 3.20 |
| P/FCF | 22.11 | 7.91 | 3.56 | 74.11 | 26.31 |
| P/FFO | 8.89 | 5.73 | 2.02 | 28.99 | 9.47 |
| P/TBV | 0.57 | 0.51 | 0.39 | 0.75 | 0.15 |
| P/AFFO | 8.37 | 2.85 | 2.44 | 19.83 | 9.93 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.52 | 0.44 | 0.36 | 0.69 | 0.13 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.39 | 0.35 | 0.25 | 0.57 | 0.12 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates MT's fair value at $65.95 vs the current price of $56.85, implying +16.0% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 78/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $65.95 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $59.12 (P10) to $74.17 (P90), with a median of $66.41.
MT's current P/E of 13.8x compares to the industry median of 28.5x (8 peers in the group). This represents a -51.5% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 11.0x over 5 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
44 analysts cover MT with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $54.50 (range: $49.00 — $60.00), implying -4.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (22), Hold (18), Sell (4), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 78/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: MT trades at the N/Ath percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (11.0×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that MT's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.3σ, meaning margins are 0.3 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 5-year mean (8.1%), the model estimates fair value drops by 2580.0% to approximately $72. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.