MODEL VERDICT
Matador Resources Company (MTDR) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $51.40 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $52.39 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $47.80 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $46.92 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $42.25 | Pending | +12.8% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 44 analyst estimates | $59.32 | +15.4% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 49 industry peers | $81.12 | +57.8% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 43 industry peers | $86.92 | +69.1% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 37 industry peers | $178.43 | +247.1% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 42 industry peers | $88.83 | +72.8% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 38 industry peers | $195.18 | +279.7% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 48 industry peers | $54.66 | +6.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 48 industry peers | $62.87 | +22.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 43 industry peers | $86.92 | +69.1% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 37 industry peers | $184.11 | +258.2% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $107.75 | +109.6% | 100% | 86 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 4× | 6× | 8× (Current) | 10× | 12× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $25 | $38 | $51 | $63 | $76 |
| Conservative (7%) | $26 | $39 | $52 | $65 | $78 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $27 | $40 | $54 | $67 | $80 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $28 | $41 | $55 | $69 | $83 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 8.87 | 7.70 | 5.66 | 17.11 | 4.13 |
| EV/EBIT | 7.88 | 6.87 | 4.33 | 15.77 | 4.03 |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.39 | 4.23 | 3.05 | 6.25 | 1.21 |
| P/FCF | 14.00 | 13.75 | 2.18 | 24.93 | 9.41 |
| P/FFO | 4.07 | 4.23 | 2.71 | 4.80 | 0.78 |
| P/TBV | 1.42 | 1.28 | 0.88 | 2.07 | 0.51 |
| P/AFFO | 5.29 | 4.97 | 4.74 | 6.35 | 0.64 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.42 | 1.28 | 0.88 | 2.07 | 0.51 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.06 | 2.05 | 1.43 | 2.65 | 0.43 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates MTDR's fair value at $107.75 vs the current price of $51.40, implying +109.6% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 86/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $107.75 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $84.35 (P10) to $125.29 (P90), with a median of $104.07.
MTDR's current P/E of 8.4x compares to the industry median of 14.3x (43 peers in the group). This represents a -40.9% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 8.9x over 6 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
41 analysts cover MTDR with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $56.67 (range: $47.00 — $70.00), implying +10.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (30), Hold (11), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 86/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that MTDR's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.2σ, meaning margins are 0.2 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (26.4%), the model estimates fair value drops by 3470.0% to approximately $69. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.