MODEL VERDICT
Matador Resources Company (MTDR)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $62.36 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $60.46 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $55.60 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $57.07 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $59.86 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $56.40 | -9.6% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $93.73 | +50.3% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $79.20 | +27.0% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 7 industry peers | $205.00 | +228.7% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 6 industry peers | $93.90 | +50.6% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 7 industry peers | $203.55 | +226.4% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 7 industry peers | $50.72 | -18.7% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 7 industry peers | $52.62 | -15.6% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 7 industry peers | $77.51 | +24.3% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 7 industry peers | $203.78 | +226.8% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $111.67 | +79.1% | 100% | 86 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 6× | 8× | 10× (Current) | 12× | 14× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $38 | $51 | $63 | $76 | $89 |
| Conservative (7%) | $39 | $52 | $65 | $78 | $91 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $40 | $54 | $67 | $80 | $94 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $41 | $55 | $69 | $83 | $97 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 8.87 | 7.70 | 5.66 | 17.11 | 4.13 |
| EV/EBIT | 7.88 | 6.87 | 4.33 | 15.77 | 4.03 |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.39 | 4.23 | 3.05 | 6.25 | 1.21 |
| P/FCF | 14.00 | 13.75 | 2.18 | 24.93 | 9.41 |
| P/FFO | 4.07 | 4.23 | 2.71 | 4.80 | 0.78 |
| P/TBV | 1.42 | 1.28 | 0.88 | 2.07 | 0.51 |
| P/AFFO | 5.29 | 4.97 | 4.74 | 6.35 | 0.64 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.42 | 1.28 | 0.88 | 2.07 | 0.51 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.06 | 2.05 | 1.43 | 2.65 | 0.43 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates MTDR's fair value at $111.67 vs the current price of $62.36, implying +79.1% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 86/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $111.67 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $89.06 (P10) to $126.16 (P90), with a median of $106.75.
MTDR's current P/E of 10.2x compares to the industry median of 13.0x (7 peers in the group). This represents a -21.3% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 8.9x over 6 years. Signal: Discount.
42 analysts cover MTDR with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $68.29 (range: $50.00 — $79.00), implying +9.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (30), Hold (12), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 86/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: MTDR trades at the 2200th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (8.9×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that MTDR's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.2σ, meaning margins are 0.2 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (26.4%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1110.0% to approximately $69. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.