MODEL VERDICT
Matrix Service Company (MTRX)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $13.52 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $12.74 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $12.19 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $12.13 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $12.21 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 10 analyst estimates | $2.04 | -84.9% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 9 industry peers | $113.17 | +737.1% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 9 industry peers | $118.76 | +778.4% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 10 industry peers | $58.48 | +332.5% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 10 industry peers | $43.70 | +223.2% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 9 industry peers | $113.17 | +737.1% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $67.46 | +399.0% | 100% | 69 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 52.31 | 11.48 | 2.96 | 213.20 | 90.52 |
| P/TBV | 1.83 | 1.77 | 0.91 | 2.87 | 0.83 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.41 | 1.45 | 0.70 | 2.28 | 0.64 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.35 | 0.33 | 0.23 | 0.45 | 0.09 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 15 valuation metrics, the model estimates MTRX's fair value at $67.46 vs the current price of $13.52, implying +399.0% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 69/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $67.46 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $42.09 (P10) to $134.38 (P90), with a median of $72.17.
MTRX's current P/E of -12.8x compares to the industry median of 32.1x (9 peers in the group). This represents a -139.8% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
13 analysts cover MTRX with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $24.00 (range: $24.00 — $24.00), implying +77.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (9), Hold (4), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 69/100, based on: data completeness (15), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for MTRX.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.