MODEL VERDICT
Metallus Inc. (MTUS)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $19.14 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $19.11 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $18.05 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $17.52 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.14 | $17.74 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $17.13 | -10.5% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $20.47 | +6.9% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $1.15 | -94.0% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 7 industry peers | $10.39 | -45.7% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $50.04 | +161.4% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $41.42 | +116.4% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $1.02 | -94.7% | 2% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $13.83 | -27.8% | 100% | 56 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 547× | 599× | 651× (Current) | 703× | 755× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $17 | $18 | $20 | $21 | $23 |
| Conservative (7%) | $17 | $19 | $20 | $22 | $24 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $18 | $19 | $21 | $23 | $24 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $18 | $20 | $22 | $23 | $25 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 128.93 | 14.96 | 5.19 | 480.61 | 234.50 |
| EV/EBIT | 34.04 | 8.97 | 3.87 | 87.47 | 38.49 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.71 | 5.89 | 3.39 | 13.24 | 3.38 |
| P/FCF | 8.22 | 8.71 | 1.34 | 15.21 | 5.35 |
| P/FFO | 13.76 | 8.23 | 3.88 | 44.71 | 15.37 |
| P/TBV | 0.99 | 0.91 | 0.42 | 1.54 | 0.44 |
| P/AFFO | 11.44 | 12.36 | 4.09 | 16.95 | 5.77 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.98 | 0.91 | 0.41 | 1.53 | 0.44 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.51 | 0.58 | 0.24 | 0.82 | 0.25 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 19 valuation metrics, the model estimates MTUS's fair value at $13.83 vs the current price of $19.14, implying -27.8% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 56/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $13.83 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $15.51 (P10) to $21.71 (P90), with a median of $18.54.
MTUS's current P/E of 651.0x compares to the industry median of 39.3x (6 peers in the group). This represents a +1558.3% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 128.9x over 4 years. Signal: High Premium.
5 analysts cover MTUS with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is N/A (range: N/A — N/A), implying N/A upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (1), Hold (3), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 56/100, based on: data completeness (15), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --10 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: MTUS trades at the N/Ath percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (128.9×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for MTUS.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.