MODEL VERDICT
The Manitowoc Company, Inc. (MTW)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $13.51 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $13.47 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $13.01 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $13.00 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.51 | $13.09 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 12 analyst estimates | $14.45 | +7.0% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 12 industry peers | $33.18 | +145.6% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 12 industry peers | $4.90 | -63.7% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 12 industry peers | $17.64 | +30.6% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 12 industry peers | $92.12 | +581.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 12 industry peers | $74.96 | +454.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 12 industry peers | $4.89 | -63.8% | 2% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $20.34 | +50.6% | 100% | 59 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 58× | 63× | 68× (Current) | 73× | 78× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $12 | $13 | $14 | $15 | $16 |
| Conservative (7%) | $12 | $13 | $14 | $16 | $17 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $13 | $14 | $15 | $16 | $17 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $13 | $14 | $15 | $17 | $18 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 30.89 | 15.31 | 5.85 | 59.97 | 26.77 |
| EV/EBIT | 16.43 | 14.30 | 8.44 | 24.81 | 6.85 |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.00 | 7.65 | 5.39 | 16.17 | 4.05 |
| P/FCF | 44.30 | 21.34 | 18.41 | 93.15 | 42.33 |
| P/FFO | 9.84 | 6.89 | 2.75 | 25.09 | 7.98 |
| P/TBV | 1.46 | 1.51 | 0.73 | 2.41 | 0.64 |
| P/AFFO | 19.30 | 13.33 | 4.47 | 37.66 | 13.24 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.77 | 0.72 | 0.51 | 0.99 | 0.21 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.26 | 0.27 | 0.15 | 0.38 | 0.09 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 19 valuation metrics, the model estimates MTW's fair value at $20.34 vs the current price of $13.51, implying +50.6% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 59/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $20.34 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $16.03 (P10) to $26.25 (P90), with a median of $20.92.
MTW's current P/E of 67.5x compares to the industry median of 24.5x (12 peers in the group). This represents a +175.8% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 30.9x over 5 years. Signal: High Premium.
23 analysts cover MTW with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $10.00 (range: $10.00 — $10.00), implying -26.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (4), Hold (13), Sell (6), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 59/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --10 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: MTW trades at the 9230th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (30.9×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that MTW's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.3σ, meaning margins are 0.3 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 5-year mean (1.6%), the model estimates fair value drops by 12490.0% to approximately $30. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.