MODEL VERDICT
MasTec, Inc. (MTZ)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $417.41 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $376.12 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $370.89 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $365.07 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $361.22 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 12 analyst estimates | $258.32 | -38.1% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 12 industry peers | $274.04 | -34.3% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 12 industry peers | $228.39 | -45.3% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 11 industry peers | $105.34 | -74.8% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 12 industry peers | $183.51 | -56.0% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 11 industry peers | $73.95 | -82.3% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 8 industry peers | $40.68 | -90.3% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 12 industry peers | $374.77 | -10.2% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 12 industry peers | $408.02 | -2.2% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 12 industry peers | $219.03 | -47.5% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 11 industry peers | $105.34 | -74.8% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $197.70 | -52.6% | 100% | 86 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 68× | 75× | 82× (Current) | 89× | 96× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $352 | $388 | $424 | $460 | $496 |
| Conservative (5%) | $362 | $399 | $437 | $474 | $511 |
| Base Case (3.0%) | $355 | $392 | $428 | $465 | $501 |
| Bull Case (4%) | $359 | $395 | $432 | $469 | $506 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 60.14 | 31.81 | 12.41 | 203.17 | 72.95 |
| EV/EBIT | 31.36 | 28.34 | 10.99 | 62.10 | 20.92 |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.13 | 11.70 | 7.79 | 18.07 | 3.81 |
| P/FCF | 26.46 | 11.48 | 6.95 | 73.09 | 27.65 |
| P/FFO | 12.04 | 10.61 | 7.75 | 20.71 | 4.76 |
| P/TBV | 53.98 | 19.11 | 8.63 | 188.92 | 76.37 |
| P/AFFO | 17.77 | 16.30 | 9.71 | 30.21 | 7.40 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.02 | 2.68 | 2.16 | 5.13 | 1.04 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.79 | 0.80 | 0.49 | 1.20 | 0.22 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates MTZ's fair value at $197.70 vs the current price of $417.41, implying -52.6% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 86/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $197.70 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $178.01 (P10) to $254.89 (P90), with a median of $213.33.
MTZ's current P/E of 82.3x compares to the industry median of 45.0x (12 peers in the group). This represents a +82.8% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 60.1x over 6 years. Signal: High Premium.
36 analysts cover MTZ with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $330.25 (range: $260.00 — $425.00), implying -20.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (31), Hold (5), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 86/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: MTZ trades at the 8080th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (60.1×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that MTZ's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.3σ, meaning margins are 0.3 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (4.7%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1760.0% to approximately $491. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.