MODEL VERDICT
Myers Industries, Inc. (MYE)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.30 | $20.71 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.30 | $21.49 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.31 | $21.65 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.30 | $21.45 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $22.35 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 6 analyst estimates | $21.33 | +3.0% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 6 industry peers | $20.01 | -3.4% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 5 industry peers | $16.29 | -21.3% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 6 industry peers | $35.99 | +73.8% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 5 industry peers | $15.60 | -24.7% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 6 industry peers | $29.71 | +43.5% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 6 industry peers | $21.15 | +2.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 6 industry peers | $26.44 | +27.7% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 5 industry peers | $16.27 | -21.4% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 6 industry peers | $35.79 | +72.8% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $21.30 | +2.9% | 100% | 86 | FAIRLY VALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 18× | 20× | 22× (Current) | 24× | 26× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $17 | $19 | $21 | $23 | $25 |
| Conservative (5%) | $18 | $20 | $21 | $23 | $25 |
| Base Case (-1.8%) | $16 | $18 | $20 | $22 | $24 |
| Bull Case (-3%) | $16 | $18 | $20 | $22 | $24 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 24.75 | 20.37 | 13.55 | 58.11 | 15.20 |
| EV/EBIT | 14.57 | 15.41 | 10.61 | 17.86 | 3.11 |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.14 | 10.14 | 8.30 | 12.05 | 1.39 |
| P/FCF | 15.56 | 13.51 | 7.53 | 26.90 | 6.95 |
| P/FFO | 11.63 | 12.51 | 9.06 | 13.48 | 1.90 |
| P/TBV | 8.37 | 8.60 | 4.76 | 10.85 | 2.46 |
| P/AFFO | 17.56 | 17.01 | 13.96 | 21.42 | 2.84 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.92 | 3.11 | 1.49 | 3.95 | 0.85 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.05 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.96 | 0.89 | 0.49 | 1.46 | 0.30 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates MYE's fair value at $21.30 vs the current price of $20.71, implying +2.9% upside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 86/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $21.30 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $20.46 (P10) to $25.17 (P90), with a median of $22.80.
MYE's current P/E of 22.3x compares to the industry median of 17.5x (5 peers in the group). This represents a +27.1% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 24.8x over 7 years. Signal: Premium.
8 analysts cover MYE with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $26.00 (range: $26.00 — $26.00), implying +25.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (5), Hold (3), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 86/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that MYE's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.6σ, meaning margins are 0.6 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (6.9%), the model estimates fair value drops by 8100.0% to approximately $37. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.