MODEL VERDICT
N-able, Inc. (NABL)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $5.31 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $5.18 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $5.20 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $4.97 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $4.21 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $14.74 | +177.6% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 3 industry peers | $14.86 | +179.8% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 4 industry peers | $9.56 | +80.0% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 8 industry peers | $8.84 | +66.5% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 3 industry peers | $24.03 | +352.5% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 8 industry peers | $7.70 | +45.0% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $15.57 | +193.2% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $15.70 | +195.7% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 5 industry peers | $8.97 | +68.9% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 8 industry peers | $8.35 | +57.3% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $63.93 | +1103.9% | 100% | 68 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 27× | 30× | 33× (Current) | 36× | 39× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $4 | $5 | $5 | $6 | $6 |
| Conservative (7%) | $5 | $5 | $6 | $6 | $7 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $5 | $5 | $6 | $6 | $7 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $5 | $5 | $6 | $7 | $7 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 4032.23 | 106.71 | 58.38 | 15857.14 | 7883.31 |
| EV/EBIT | 43.88 | 39.73 | 24.25 | 71.80 | 20.23 |
| EV/EBITDA | 28.40 | 30.00 | 18.91 | 34.69 | 6.71 |
| P/FCF | 73.52 | 36.67 | 31.59 | 189.14 | 77.12 |
| P/FFO | 48.57 | 51.64 | 31.05 | 59.97 | 12.99 |
| P/AFFO | 249.59 | 75.81 | 45.00 | 801.73 | 368.43 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.97 | 3.06 | 2.32 | 3.46 | 0.49 |
| P/S Ratio | 5.09 | 5.37 | 3.78 | 5.84 | 0.95 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates NABL's fair value at $63.93 vs the current price of $5.31, implying +1103.9% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 68/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $63.93 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $11.77 (P10) to $170.33 (P90), with a median of $56.07.
NABL's current P/E of 33.2x compares to the industry median of 59.8x (4 peers in the group). This represents a -44.5% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 4032.2x over 4 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
6 analysts cover NABL with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $5.38 (range: $5.25 — $5.50), implying +1.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (2), Hold (3), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 68/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (10), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for NABL.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.