MODEL VERDICT
Namib Minerals Ordinary Shares (NAMM)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 34 analyst estimates | $13.03 | +362.1% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Industry Median P/E 25 industry peers | $3.03 | +7.4% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 20 industry peers | $8.79 | +211.7% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 30 industry peers | $8.55 | +203.2% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 23 industry peers | $10.55 | +274.1% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 26 industry peers | $3.57 | +26.6% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 23 industry peers | $10.45 | +270.6% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $11.31 | +301.1% | 100% | 57 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 37× | 40× | 43× (Current) | 46× | 49× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $3 | $3 | $3 | $3 | $3 |
| Conservative (7%) | $3 | $3 | $3 | $3 | $3 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $3 | $3 | $3 | $3 | $4 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $3 | $3 | $3 | $3 | $4 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 15 valuation metrics, the model estimates NAMM's fair value at $11.31 vs the current price of $2.82, implying +301.1% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 57/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $11.31 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $6.95 (P10) to $10.69 (P90), with a median of $8.81.
NAMM's current P/E of 42.8x compares to the industry median of 46.0x (25 peers in the group). This represents a -7.0% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Fair Value.
No analyst coverage data is available for NAMM.
The model confidence score is 57/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (5), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (3). Cyclicality penalty: --8 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that NAMM's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -1.2σ, meaning margins are 1.2 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (18.7%), the model estimates fair value drops by 34790.0% to approximately $13. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.