MODEL VERDICT
NewAmsterdam Pharma Company N.V. (NAMS)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 15, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.14 | $35.44 | CURRENT | — |
| May 8, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.14 | $38.73 | CURRENT | — |
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.14 | $28.43 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.14 | $29.72 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.14 | $34.68 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $5.12 | -85.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $0.89 | -97.5% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $5.66 | -84.0% | 100% | 48 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/TBV | 3.16 | 3.18 | 0.48 | 5.88 | 1.91 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.16 | 3.18 | 0.48 | 5.87 | 1.91 |
| P/S Ratio | 74.68 | 59.18 | 2.01 | 178.34 | 74.33 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 5 valuation metrics, the model estimates NAMS's fair value at $5.66 vs the current price of $35.44, implying -84.0% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 48/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $5.66 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%).
NAMS's current P/E of -20.3x compares to the industry median of 21.2x (7 peers in the group). This represents a -195.7% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
10 analysts cover NAMS with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $46.00 (range: $37.00 — $55.00), implying +29.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (9), Hold (1), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 48/100, based on: data completeness (0), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for NAMS.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.