MODEL VERDICT
Nordic American Tankers Limited (NAT)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $5.76 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $5.54 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $6.03 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $5.89 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $5.72 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $3.74 | -35.1% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $1.56 | -72.9% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 8 industry peers | $2.80 | -51.4% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 5 industry peers | $9.00 | +56.3% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 8 industry peers | $2.93 | -49.1% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 5 industry peers | $8.89 | +54.3% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $4.11 | -28.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $4.66 | -19.1% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 8 industry peers | $2.79 | -51.6% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 5 industry peers | $9.00 | +56.3% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $4.03 | -30.1% | 100% | 80 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 22× | 24× | 26× (Current) | 28× | 30× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $5 | $5 | $6 | $6 | $7 |
| Conservative (7%) | $5 | $6 | $6 | $7 | $7 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $5 | $6 | $6 | $7 | $7 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $5 | $6 | $6 | $7 | $7 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 17.47 | 10.15 | 8.68 | 40.91 | 15.67 |
| EV/EBIT | 16.17 | 9.76 | 8.87 | 32.61 | 10.41 |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.95 | 8.19 | 4.96 | 21.74 | 6.26 |
| P/FCF | 9.05 | 9.04 | 4.18 | 13.94 | 5.31 |
| P/FFO | 7.44 | 5.84 | 3.74 | 13.08 | 3.79 |
| P/TBV | 0.96 | 1.03 | 0.47 | 1.63 | 0.41 |
| P/AFFO | 8.71 | 8.36 | 4.41 | 13.73 | 4.60 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.96 | 1.03 | 0.47 | 1.63 | 0.41 |
| Div Yield | 0.08 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 0.17 | 0.06 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.63 | 1.50 | 0.98 | 2.24 | 0.48 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates NAT's fair value at $4.03 vs the current price of $5.76, implying -30.1% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 80/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $4.03 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $3.67 (P10) to $5.09 (P90), with a median of $4.35.
NAT's current P/E of 26.2x compares to the industry median of 12.7x (8 peers in the group). This represents a +105.6% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 17.5x over 4 years. Signal: High Premium.
19 analysts cover NAT with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $3.50 (range: $3.00 — $4.00), implying -39.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (5), Hold (11), Sell (3), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 80/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: NAT trades at the 7600th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (17.5×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that NAT's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.0σ, meaning margins are 0.0 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 4-year mean (5.7%), the model estimates fair value drops by 46010.0% to approximately $32. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.