MODEL VERDICT
NB Bancorp, Inc. Common Stock (NBBK)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.45 | $19.93 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.45 | $19.82 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $22.50 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $22.44 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $22.40 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 9 industry peers | $20.39 | +2.3% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 10 industry peers | $22.45 | +12.6% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 10 bank peers | $25.43 | +27.6% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 10 industry peers | $4.71 | -76.4% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 9 industry peers | $20.39 | +2.3% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 10 analyst estimates | $20.59 | +3.3% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $23.12 | +16.0% | 100% | 73 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 11× | 13× | 15× (Current) | 17× | 19× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $15 | $18 | $21 | $24 | $26 |
| Conservative (7%) | $16 | $19 | $21 | $24 | $27 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $16 | $19 | $22 | $25 | $28 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $17 | $20 | $23 | $26 | $29 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 30.05 | 16.88 | 14.79 | 58.48 | 24.64 |
| EV/EBIT | 28.08 | 10.59 | 9.65 | 64.00 | 31.11 |
| EV/EBITDA | 23.78 | 10.09 | 9.57 | 51.67 | 24.16 |
| P/FCF | 14.25 | 14.22 | 11.30 | 17.25 | 2.98 |
| P/FFO | 25.49 | 16.04 | 15.77 | 44.67 | 16.61 |
| P/TBV | 0.89 | 0.93 | 0.75 | 0.99 | 0.13 |
| P/AFFO | 30.47 | 17.19 | 16.48 | 57.74 | 23.62 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.88 | 0.93 | 0.75 | 0.95 | 0.11 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.43 | 2.38 | 2.34 | 2.57 | 0.12 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 16 valuation metrics, the model estimates NBBK's fair value at $23.12 vs the current price of $19.93, implying +16.0% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 73/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $23.12 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $16.81 (P10) to $27.72 (P90), with a median of $21.97.
NBBK's current P/E of 14.9x compares to the industry median of 15.2x (9 peers in the group). This represents a -2.3% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 30.0x over 3 years. Signal: Fair Value.
1 analysts cover NBBK with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $24.00 (range: $24.00 — $24.00), implying +20.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (1), Hold (0), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 73/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (10), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that NBBK's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.0σ, meaning margins are 0.0 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 3-year mean (16.1%), the model estimates fair value drops by 10530.0% to approximately $41. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.