MODEL VERDICT
Northeast Bank (NBN)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 12, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $129.92 | CURRENT | — |
| Jun 5, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $119.29 | CURRENT | — |
| May 29, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $125.74 | CURRENT | — |
| May 22, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $123.50 | CURRENT | — |
| May 15, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $115.18 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 5 industry peers | $144.46 | +11.2% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 5 industry peers | $65.46 | -49.6% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 5 bank peers | $79.11 | -39.1% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 5 industry peers | $1.13 | -99.1% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 5 industry peers | $144.62 | +11.3% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 5 analyst estimates | $121.54 | -6.5% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $96.40 | -25.8% | 100% | 87 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 9× | 11× | 13× (Current) | 15× | 17× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (13%) | $102 | $125 | $148 | $170 | $193 |
| Conservative (21%) | $109 | $134 | $158 | $182 | $207 |
| Base Case (31.8%) | $120 | $146 | $173 | $199 | $226 |
| Bull Case (43%) | $130 | $159 | $187 | $216 | $245 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 9.59 | 9.26 | 4.18 | 14.47 | 3.25 |
| EV/EBIT | 7.24 | 7.58 | 3.17 | 12.20 | 3.55 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.88 | 7.13 | 3.04 | 11.63 | 3.39 |
| P/FCF | 920.98 | 13.36 | 7.10 | 6345.90 | 2392.19 |
| P/FFO | 8.90 | 8.63 | 4.03 | 12.87 | 2.90 |
| P/TBV | 1.46 | 1.35 | 1.25 | 1.88 | 0.24 |
| P/AFFO | 9.17 | 9.11 | 4.10 | 13.12 | 2.98 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.45 | 1.34 | 1.23 | 1.87 | 0.25 |
| Div Yield | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.42 | 2.34 | 2.03 | 3.03 | 0.34 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates NBN's fair value at $96.40 vs the current price of $129.92, implying -25.8% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 87/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $96.40 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $81.32 (P10) to $105.62 (P90), with a median of $93.03.
NBN's current P/E of 12.9x compares to the industry median of 14.3x (5 peers in the group). This represents a -10.1% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 9.6x over 7 years. Signal: Slightly Cheap.
2 analysts cover NBN with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $145.00 (range: $145.00 — $145.00), implying +11.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (1), Hold (1), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 87/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (22), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: NBN trades at the 4070th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (9.6×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that NBN's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.3σ, meaning margins are 0.3 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (28.3%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1430.0% to approximately $111. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.