MODEL VERDICT
Noble Corporation Plc (NE)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $50.53 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $49.54 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $46.77 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $47.42 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $48.93 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 4 analyst estimates | $34.69 | -31.4% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $61.52 | +21.7% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 3 industry peers | $13.05 | -74.2% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 4 industry peers | $59.00 | +16.8% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 5 industry peers | $69.45 | +37.4% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 4 industry peers | $71.19 | +40.9% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 7 industry peers | $30.07 | -40.5% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 7 industry peers | $30.22 | -40.2% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 3 industry peers | $10.01 | -80.2% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 4 industry peers | $45.28 | -10.4% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $73.84 | +46.1% | 100% | 78 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 31× | 34× | 37× (Current) | 40× | 43× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $44 | $48 | $52 | $56 | $60 |
| Conservative (7%) | $45 | $49 | $53 | $58 | $62 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $46 | $50 | $55 | $59 | $64 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $47 | $52 | $57 | $61 | $66 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 16.37 | 14.51 | 10.61 | 21.80 | 4.81 |
| EV/EBIT | 16.87 | 11.74 | 9.48 | 34.52 | 11.82 |
| EV/EBITDA | 36.78 | 7.90 | 5.48 | 143.83 | 60.18 |
| P/FCF | 45.68 | 50.92 | 10.47 | 70.42 | 26.14 |
| P/FFO | 10.89 | 8.93 | 5.43 | 23.78 | 7.54 |
| P/TBV | 1.87 | 1.79 | 0.99 | 3.43 | 1.00 |
| P/AFFO | 24.09 | 16.85 | 15.78 | 53.08 | 16.25 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.84 | 1.78 | 0.99 | 3.29 | 0.94 |
| Div Yield | 0.05 | 0.06 | 0.01 | 0.07 | 0.03 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.36 | 2.70 | 1.38 | 5.83 | 2.09 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates NE's fair value at $73.84 vs the current price of $50.53, implying +46.1% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 78/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $73.84 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $40.90 (P10) to $121.57 (P90), with a median of $68.34.
NE's current P/E of 37.4x compares to the industry median of 9.7x (3 peers in the group). This represents a +287.3% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 16.4x over 5 years. Signal: High Premium.
51 analysts cover NE with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $45.80 (range: $33.00 — $59.00), implying -9.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (15), Hold (23), Sell (13), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 78/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: NE trades at the 6670th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (16.4×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that NE's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.6σ, meaning margins are 0.6 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 5-year mean (8.2%), the model estimates fair value drops by 4980.0% to approximately $25. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.