Nexa Resources S.A. (NEXA)
Valuation Overview•Is Nexa Resources S.A. Overvalued or Undervalued?
Trading at a discount across both intrinsic cash flow and relative peer multiples, indicating a strong margin of safety.
Fragile underlying quality score of 40/100; weak margins or elevated debt leverage warrant caution.
Wall Street forecasts a balanced outlook with consensus price targets near the current price.
Verdict: Average quality business weighed down by significant solvency concerns.
Wall Street sentiment is generally neutral alongside robust expected earnings growth. However, capital return yields remain modest, anchored by a strong, well-covered dividend yield.
NEXA struggles with subpar profitability and pressured margins. This is paired with a moderately leveraged but stable balance sheet.
The company is facing top-line contraction (-0.4% 3Y CAGR) paired with robust earnings compounding (19.9% EPS 3Y CAGR). Operating efficiency remains adequate with margins around 13.1%.
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $896.0M | +8.2% | -0.4% | +8.9% | +4.8% | |
| EBITDA | $301.1M | — | +5.5% | — | — | |
| Net Income | $50.4M | +164.7% | +38.7% | — | — | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $0.38 | +164.5% | +19.9% | — | — | |
| Free Cash Flow | $169.4M | -42.7% | — | — | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 19.7% | 16.3% | 18.8% | 21.3% |
| Operating Margin | 13.1% | 5.9% | 9.3% | 5.8% |
| Net Margin | 4.4% | -4.8% | -1.7% | -3.0% |
| FCF Margin | 1.5% | 0.9% | -0.2% | 1.6% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26Latest | $0.59 | $0.67 | +13.6% | ||
| Q1'26 | $0.45 | $0.60 | +33.3% | ||
| Q4'25 | $0.11 | $-0.03 | -127.3% | ||
| Q3'25 | $-0.05 | $0.11 | +320.0% | ||
| Q2'25 | $0.09 | $0.16 | +77.8% | ||
| Q1'25 | $0.20 | $-1.00 | -600.0% | ||
| Q4'24 | $0.08 | $0.02 | -75.0% | ||
| Q3'24 | $0.18 | $0.15 | -16.7% |
Total return is +193.0% (1Y), outperforming the benchmark by +168.0%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | +62.0% | +52.7% | — |
| 1Y | +193.0% | +168.0% | — |
| 3YCAGR | +43.5% | +24.3% | +2.1% |
| 5YCAGR | +11.3% | -0.5% | +7.7% |
| 10YCAGR | -0.4% | -14.0% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 31.3x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about Nexa Resources S.A. (NEXA) valuation, health, and returns.
Nexa Resources S.A. is estimated to be undervalued under our discounted cash flow framework. relative multiples indicate the stock is Cheap versus peers compared to industry peers. undervalued (implying +65.6% upside to DCF intrinsic value of $23.58)
Nexa Resources S.A. has multiple valuation anchors: DCF Intrinsic Value: $23.58 | Peer Relative Fair Value: $33.47 | Wall Street Analyst Target: $14.50 (implying +1.8% upside). A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
Nexa Resources S.A. displays fair financial health with a composite quality score of 40/100, supported by a Altman Z-Score of 0.2 (distress zone), Piotroski F-Score of 6/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 12.6%.
Nexa Resources S.A. pays a 1.8% dividend yield, covered by a 26% payout ratio with 0 years of growth, supplemented by a 0.0% buyback yield.
Nexa Resources S.A.'s current growth trajectory is Accelerating. The company achieved +8.2% 1Y revenue growth and +164.5% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of -0.4%.
Wall Street consensus is Hold based on 10 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 50% of recent quarters with a 2-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a +1.8% change from current levels.
Investment risks for Nexa Resources S.A. include: -37.3% 1-year max drawdown, high beta (2.11x market volatility), elevated distress risk. Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 2.11x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.