MODEL VERDICT
Nexa Resources S.A. (NEXA)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $15.50 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $14.43 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $16.00 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $14.67 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $11.85 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $30.48 | +96.6% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $51.59 | +232.8% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 6 industry peers | $26.17 | +68.8% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 7 industry peers | $26.14 | +68.6% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 6 industry peers | $17.27 | +11.4% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $92.38 | +496.0% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $106.66 | +588.1% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 6 industry peers | $25.73 | +66.0% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $32.19 | +107.7% | 100% | 72 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 12.77 | 10.40 | 6.66 | 21.25 | 7.58 |
| EV/EBIT | 6.73 | 6.62 | 4.59 | 9.09 | 2.18 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.07 | 3.58 | 2.86 | 14.08 | 4.62 |
| P/FCF | 59.93 | 33.17 | 12.85 | 133.78 | 64.76 |
| P/FFO | 12.58 | 5.44 | 2.34 | 51.09 | 19.00 |
| P/TBV | 1.49 | 0.87 | 0.60 | 5.17 | 1.63 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.66 | 0.63 | 0.43 | 1.10 | 0.23 |
| Div Yield | 0.05 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.04 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.46 | 0.42 | 0.26 | 0.65 | 0.14 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 21 valuation metrics, the model estimates NEXA's fair value at $32.19 vs the current price of $15.50, implying +107.7% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 72/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $32.19 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $28.49 (P10) to $41.79 (P90), with a median of $34.86.
NEXA's current P/E of -10.0x compares to the industry median of 27.0x (7 peers in the group). This represents a -137.1% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 12.8x over 3 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
10 analysts cover NEXA with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $11.10 (range: $7.70 — $14.50), implying -28.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (0), Hold (7), Sell (3), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 72/100, based on: data completeness (21), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for NEXA.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.