MODEL VERDICT
NextDecade Corporation (NEXT)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.14 | $4.89 | CURRENT | +54.2% |
| Dec 12, 2025 | NEUTRAL | 0.14 | $5.46 | Below threshold | +6.6% |
| Nov 12, 2025 | NEUTRAL | 0.14 | $6.11 | Below threshold | -11.9% |
| Oct 13, 2025 | NEUTRAL | 0.14 | $6.11 | Below threshold | -20.0% |
| Sep 13, 2025 | NEUTRAL | 0.14 | $6.84 | Below threshold | -20.2% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/TBV | 1.77 | 1.44 | 0.60 | 3.63 | 1.01 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.76 | 1.42 | 0.60 | 3.57 | 0.99 |
| Div Yield | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Insufficient data to determine relative valuation for NEXT.
Fair value could not be computed for NEXT due to insufficient comparable data.
NEXT's current P/E of -6.7x compares to the industry median of 16.2x (5 peers in the group). This represents a -141.4% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
9 analysts cover NEXT with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $7.00 (range: $7.00 — $7.00), implying -10.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (4), Hold (5), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 43/100, based on: data completeness (0), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (3). Cyclicality penalty: --10 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for NEXT.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.