MODEL VERDICT
NiSource Inc. (NI)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $48.08 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $47.99 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $48.31 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $47.37 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $48.05 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 11 industry peers | $41.39 | -13.9% | 22% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBITDA 11 industry peers | $37.38 | -22.3% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 11 industry peers | $37.51 | -22.0% | 18% | B | Supplementary |
| Forward P/E 11 analyst estimates | $40.10 | -16.6% | 12% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBIT 11 industry peers | $45.20 | -6.0% | 7% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 11 industry peers | $24.14 | -49.8% | 4% | B | Data |
| Earnings Yield 11 industry peers | $41.39 | -13.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $40.90 | -14.9% | 100% | 82 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 21× | 23× | 25× (Current) | 27× | 29× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $43 | $47 | $51 | $55 | $59 |
| Conservative (7%) | $44 | $48 | $52 | $56 | $60 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $45 | $49 | $54 | $58 | $62 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $46 | $51 | $55 | $60 | $64 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 21.99 | 21.58 | 16.13 | 32.00 | 5.51 |
| EV/EBIT | 25.63 | 20.22 | 17.78 | 54.90 | 14.44 |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.19 | 12.21 | 10.79 | 14.61 | 1.21 |
| P/FFO | 9.16 | 9.29 | 7.33 | 12.45 | 1.71 |
| P/TBV | 1.88 | 1.89 | 1.37 | 2.33 | 0.30 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.55 | 1.57 | 1.17 | 1.75 | 0.19 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.36 | 2.16 | 1.88 | 3.07 | 0.48 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 19 valuation metrics, the model estimates NI's fair value at $40.90 vs the current price of $48.08, implying -14.9% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 82/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $40.90 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $36.24 (P10) to $44.62 (P90), with a median of $40.40.
NI's current P/E of 24.7x compares to the industry median of 21.2x (11 peers in the group). This represents a +16.2% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 22.0x over 6 years. Signal: Slight Premium.
22 analysts cover NI with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $49.80 (range: $48.00 — $51.00), implying +3.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (16), Hold (6), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 82/100, based on: data completeness (22), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: NI trades at the 6360th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (22.0×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that NI's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.8σ, meaning margins are 0.8 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (9.7%), the model estimates fair value drops by 3890.0% to approximately $29. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.