MODEL VERDICT
New Jersey Resources Corporation (NJR)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.52 | $56.00 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.53 | $55.82 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.47 | $55.68 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.46 | $55.93 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.31 | $56.96 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 8 industry peers | $75.50 | +34.8% | 22% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $44.06 | -21.3% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 8 industry peers | $74.23 | +32.6% | 18% | B | Supplementary |
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $66.42 | +18.6% | 12% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBIT 8 industry peers | $51.46 | -8.1% | 7% | B+ | Peer Data |
| Peg Ratio 4 industry peers | $112.21 | +100.4% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $58.02 | +3.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Earnings Yield 8 industry peers | $74.92 | +33.8% | 4% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $65.98 | +17.8% | 100% | 86 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 13× | 15× | 17× (Current) | 19× | 21× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (6%) | $46 | $53 | $60 | $67 | $74 |
| Conservative (9%) | $47 | $55 | $62 | $69 | $76 |
| Base Case (14.3%) | $49 | $57 | $65 | $72 | $80 |
| Bull Case (19%) | $52 | $60 | $67 | $75 | $83 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 20.24 | 17.41 | 13.85 | 33.66 | 6.74 |
| EV/EBIT | 20.61 | 18.30 | 15.14 | 33.35 | 6.20 |
| EV/EBITDA | 16.40 | 15.76 | 13.46 | 21.00 | 2.97 |
| P/FFO | 12.06 | 11.61 | 8.86 | 16.63 | 2.74 |
| P/TBV | 2.29 | 2.20 | 1.95 | 2.65 | 0.27 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.28 | 2.19 | 1.94 | 2.63 | 0.27 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.99 | 1.86 | 1.54 | 2.60 | 0.39 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 21 valuation metrics, the model estimates NJR's fair value at $65.98 vs the current price of $56.00, implying +17.8% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 86/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $65.98 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $58.55 (P10) to $71.92 (P90), with a median of $64.89.
NJR's current P/E of 16.8x compares to the industry median of 22.7x (8 peers in the group). This represents a -25.8% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 20.2x over 7 years. Signal: Discount.
16 analysts cover NJR with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $55.75 (range: $53.00 — $61.00), implying -0.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (8), Hold (5), Sell (3), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 86/100, based on: data completeness (26), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that NJR's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.9σ, meaning margins are 0.9 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (10.9%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1380.0% to approximately $48. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.