MODEL VERDICT
New Mountain Finance Corporation (NMFC)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $8.60 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $8.09 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $8.51 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $8.41 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $7.99 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 12 industry peers | $1.52 | -82.3% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 12 industry peers | $7.98 | -7.2% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 12 bank peers | $7.98 | -7.2% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 10 industry peers | $0.28 | -96.7% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 12 industry peers | $1.52 | -82.3% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 11 analyst estimates | $9.55 | +11.0% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $5.28 | -38.6% | 100% | 83 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 46× | 50× | 54× (Current) | 58× | 62× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $8 | $8 | $9 | $9 | $10 |
| Conservative (5%) | $8 | $8 | $9 | $10 | $10 |
| Base Case (-23.2%) | $6 | $6 | $7 | $7 | $8 |
| Bull Case (-31%) | $5 | $5 | $6 | $6 | $7 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 18.98 | 11.26 | 7.17 | 57.56 | 17.48 |
| EV/EBIT | 28.78 | 28.16 | 11.53 | 48.80 | 14.01 |
| EV/EBITDA | 28.12 | 28.16 | 7.57 | 48.80 | 15.04 |
| P/FCF | 20.01 | 20.67 | 2.94 | 33.99 | 10.28 |
| P/TBV | 1.06 | 1.08 | 0.93 | 1.18 | 0.08 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.06 | 1.08 | 0.93 | 1.18 | 0.08 |
| Div Yield | 0.06 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.04 |
| P/S Ratio | 4.53 | 4.59 | 3.41 | 5.65 | 0.70 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates NMFC's fair value at $5.28 vs the current price of $8.60, implying -38.6% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 83/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $5.28 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $5.14 (P10) to $6.17 (P90), with a median of $5.62.
NMFC's current P/E of 53.8x compares to the industry median of 9.5x (12 peers in the group). This represents a +464.1% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 19.0x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
12 analysts cover NMFC with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $10.50 (range: $10.00 — $11.00), implying +22.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (3), Hold (8), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 83/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: NMFC trades at the 8970th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (19.0×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that NMFC's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.2σ, meaning margins are 0.2 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (37.5%), the model estimates fair value drops by 6830.0% to approximately $3. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.