MODEL VERDICT
Northrop Grumman Corporation (NOC)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $568.14 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $575.11 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $665.26 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $678.59 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.61 | $673.73 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 10 analyst estimates | $544.68 | -4.1% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 10 industry peers | $608.87 | +7.2% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 11 industry peers | $681.37 | +19.9% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 10 industry peers | $455.88 | -19.8% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 10 industry peers | $463.66 | -18.4% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 10 industry peers | $429.03 | -24.5% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 7 industry peers | $489.28 | -13.9% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 11 industry peers | $431.53 | -24.0% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 11 industry peers | $469.66 | -17.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 11 industry peers | $681.37 | +19.9% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 10 industry peers | $451.23 | -20.6% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $534.99 | -5.8% | 100% | 89 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 16× | 18× | 20× (Current) | 22× | 24× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $482 | $542 | $602 | $662 | $723 |
| Conservative (6%) | $492 | $554 | $615 | $677 | $738 |
| Base Case (8.9%) | $507 | $570 | $633 | $697 | $760 |
| Bull Case (12%) | $521 | $586 | $651 | $716 | $781 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 19.86 | 17.34 | 8.89 | 34.60 | 8.24 |
| EV/EBIT | 18.19 | 15.63 | 10.01 | 29.74 | 6.68 |
| EV/EBITDA | 15.83 | 14.80 | 10.88 | 22.19 | 4.14 |
| P/FCF | 29.84 | 26.37 | 17.70 | 57.91 | 13.55 |
| P/FFO | 13.89 | 13.61 | 7.55 | 20.97 | 4.21 |
| P/AFFO | 21.63 | 18.30 | 9.12 | 43.95 | 11.02 |
| P/B Ratio | 5.15 | 4.83 | 4.52 | 6.63 | 0.72 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.80 | 1.75 | 1.39 | 2.32 | 0.28 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates NOC's fair value at $534.99 vs the current price of $568.14, implying -5.8% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 89/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $534.99 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $490.56 (P10) to $615.70 (P90), with a median of $552.87.
NOC's current P/E of 19.5x compares to the industry median of 23.4x (11 peers in the group). This represents a -16.6% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 19.9x over 7 years. Signal: Discount.
35 analysts cover NOC with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $731.46 (range: $623.00 — $815.00), implying +28.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (20), Hold (14), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 89/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that NOC's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.5σ, meaning margins are 0.5 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (13.3%), the model estimates fair value drops by 2540.0% to approximately $712. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.