MODEL VERDICT
Novanta Inc. (NOVT)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $127.87 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.54 | $134.10 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $128.85 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.72 | $126.45 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $125.31 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $186.77 | +46.1% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 6 industry peers | $225.73 | +76.5% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 4 industry peers | $108.76 | -14.9% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 6 industry peers | $83.68 | -34.6% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 5 industry peers | $194.13 | +51.8% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 6 industry peers | $84.01 | -34.3% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 21 industry peers | $7.43 | -94.2% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $191.89 | +50.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $192.71 | +50.7% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 7 industry peers | $113.54 | -11.2% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 7 industry peers | $65.53 | -48.8% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $159.93 | +25.1% | 100% | 91 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 73× | 80× | 87× (Current) | 94× | 101× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $109 | $120 | $130 | $141 | $151 |
| Conservative (5%) | $113 | $123 | $134 | $145 | $156 |
| Base Case (3.3%) | $111 | $121 | $132 | $143 | $153 |
| Bull Case (4%) | $112 | $123 | $134 | $144 | $155 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 87.59 | 83.37 | 65.96 | 125.06 | 18.70 |
| EV/EBIT | 56.59 | 49.02 | 46.49 | 81.45 | 14.34 |
| EV/EBITDA | 39.70 | 35.70 | 24.23 | 62.22 | 11.96 |
| P/FCF | 62.55 | 60.61 | 32.49 | 90.18 | 21.87 |
| P/FFO | 47.28 | 46.12 | 37.73 | 67.32 | 10.45 |
| P/TBV | 82.25 | 99.63 | 8.98 | 138.13 | 66.30 |
| P/AFFO | 56.61 | 53.85 | 43.61 | 88.18 | 15.46 |
| P/B Ratio | 8.09 | 8.45 | 3.32 | 12.10 | 2.62 |
| P/S Ratio | 6.27 | 5.81 | 4.45 | 8.93 | 1.51 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates NOVT's fair value at $159.93 vs the current price of $127.87, implying +25.1% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 91/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $159.93 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $140.11 (P10) to $169.20 (P90), with a median of $154.38.
NOVT's current P/E of 87.0x compares to the industry median of 74.0x (4 peers in the group). This represents a +17.6% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 87.6x over 7 years. Signal: Slight Premium.
3 analysts cover NOVT with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $150.00 (range: $150.00 — $150.00), implying +17.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (2), Hold (1), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 91/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that NOVT's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -1.6σ, meaning margins are 1.6 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (7.2%), the model estimates fair value drops by 3180.0% to approximately $169. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.