MODEL VERDICT
National Presto Industries, Inc. (NPK)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $141.68 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $143.16 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $143.72 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $142.68 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.33 | $140.84 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA 5 industry peers | $84.46 | -40.4% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 4 industry peers | $91.72 | -35.3% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 6 industry peers | $106.32 | -25.0% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 7 industry peers | $90.81 | -35.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 7 industry peers | $67.32 | -52.5% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 4 industry peers | $78.56 | -44.6% | 2% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $94.36 | -33.4% | 100% | 75 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 27× | 29× | 31× (Current) | 33× | 35× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $128 | $137 | $146 | $156 | $165 |
| Conservative (5%) | $131 | $141 | $151 | $160 | $170 |
| Base Case (-7.0%) | $116 | $125 | $133 | $142 | $151 |
| Bull Case (-10%) | $113 | $122 | $130 | $138 | $147 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 18.64 | 16.91 | 13.26 | 23.45 | 4.29 |
| EV/EBIT | 13.53 | 14.72 | 9.60 | 15.97 | 2.82 |
| EV/EBITDA | 13.70 | 13.81 | 9.12 | 18.88 | 3.37 |
| P/FCF | 41.28 | 18.20 | 13.10 | 96.25 | 36.85 |
| P/FFO | 16.50 | 15.08 | 12.46 | 20.23 | 3.48 |
| P/TBV | 1.75 | 1.73 | 1.50 | 2.04 | 0.17 |
| P/AFFO | 24.59 | 18.00 | 13.15 | 68.21 | 19.55 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.65 | 1.64 | 1.39 | 1.91 | 0.17 |
| Div Yield | 0.05 | 0.07 | 0.01 | 0.08 | 0.02 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.70 | 1.67 | 1.51 | 2.01 | 0.18 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 16 valuation metrics, the model estimates NPK's fair value at $94.36 vs the current price of $141.68, implying -33.4% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 75/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $94.36 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $78.70 (P10) to $101.44 (P90), with a median of $89.80.
NPK's current P/E of 30.6x compares to the industry median of 19.8x (4 peers in the group). This represents a +54.5% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 18.6x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
No analyst coverage data is available for NPK.
The model confidence score is 75/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: --10 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: NPK trades at the 3240th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (18.6×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that NPK's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.1σ, meaning margins are 0.1 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (10.2%), the model estimates fair value drops by 2390.0% to approximately $108. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.