MODEL VERDICT
Texxon Holding Limited Ordinary shares (NPT)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 13, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.08 | $18.19 | CURRENT | -43.3% |
| Mar 6, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.08 | $20.50 | Below threshold | -92.3% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 38 industry peers | $1.17 | -93.6% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Earnings Yield 39 industry peers | $1.17 | -93.6% | 2% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $1.11 | -93.9% | 100% | 37 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 357× | 391× | 425× (Current) | 459× | 493× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $16 | $17 | $19 | $20 | $22 |
| Conservative (7%) | $16 | $18 | $19 | $21 | $22 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $17 | $18 | $20 | $22 | $23 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $17 | $19 | $21 | $22 | $24 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 4 valuation metrics, the model estimates NPT's fair value at $1.11 vs the current price of $18.19, implying -93.9% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 37/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $1.11 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $0.75 (P10) to $2.64 (P90), with a median of $1.18.
NPT's current P/E of 425.0x compares to the industry median of 27.3x (38 peers in the group). This represents a +1455.6% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: High Premium.
No analyst coverage data is available for NPT.
The model confidence score is 37/100, based on: data completeness (9), peer quality (25), historical depth (5), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (3). Cyclicality penalty: --10 points. The model shows weak agreement across inputs — interpret with caution.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that NPT's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.4σ, meaning margins are 0.4 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (0.2%), the model estimates fair value drops by 6220.0% to approximately $30. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.