MODEL VERDICT
Insight Enterprises, Inc. (NSIT)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $72.77 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $73.23 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $76.45 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $75.14 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $68.79 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $136.00 | +86.9% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $107.17 | +47.3% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 8 industry peers | $74.24 | +2.0% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 8 industry peers | $99.43 | +36.6% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 8 industry peers | $106.18 | +45.9% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 8 industry peers | $74.75 | +2.7% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $91.67 | +26.0% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $113.61 | +56.1% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 8 industry peers | $73.47 | +1.0% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 8 industry peers | $99.43 | +36.6% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $114.13 | +56.8% | 100% | 86 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 11× | 13× | 15× (Current) | 17× | 19× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $55 | $64 | $74 | $84 | $94 |
| Conservative (5%) | $56 | $66 | $77 | $87 | $97 |
| Base Case (0.0%) | $53 | $63 | $73 | $83 | $92 |
| Bull Case (-0%) | $53 | $63 | $73 | $83 | $92 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 17.99 | 16.76 | 13.09 | 23.47 | 3.94 |
| EV/EBIT | 14.14 | 13.86 | 10.79 | 18.13 | 2.45 |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.66 | 11.82 | 8.02 | 15.75 | 2.61 |
| P/FCF | 36.03 | 11.37 | 8.14 | 135.16 | 45.92 |
| P/FFO | 13.52 | 12.29 | 9.99 | 19.19 | 3.38 |
| P/TBV | 12.90 | 5.42 | 3.91 | 49.81 | 16.62 |
| P/AFFO | 16.36 | 17.65 | 11.02 | 21.67 | 3.92 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.53 | 2.24 | 1.60 | 3.80 | 0.77 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.45 | 0.35 | 0.32 | 0.72 | 0.17 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates NSIT's fair value at $114.13 vs the current price of $72.77, implying +56.8% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 86/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $114.13 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $97.74 (P10) to $160.49 (P90), with a median of $122.74.
NSIT's current P/E of 15.0x compares to the industry median of 15.3x (8 peers in the group). This represents a -2.0% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 18.0x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
7 analysts cover NSIT with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $90.00 (range: $90.00 — $90.00), implying +23.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (3), Hold (2), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 86/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that NSIT's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -1.1σ, meaning margins are 1.1 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (2.4%), the model estimates fair value drops by 5280.0% to approximately $111. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.