MODEL VERDICT
NetApp, Inc. (NTAP)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $112.08 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $108.71 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $104.53 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $100.33 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $95.89 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $159.80 | +42.6% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 9 industry peers | $203.46 | +81.5% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $332.83 | +197.0% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 8 industry peers | $226.19 | +101.8% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 8 industry peers | $222.72 | +98.7% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 8 industry peers | $226.76 | +102.3% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 2 industry peers | $263.91 | +135.5% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $123.51 | +10.2% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $104.90 | -6.4% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $291.32 | +159.9% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 8 industry peers | $216.71 | +93.4% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $196.96 | +75.7% | 100% | 85 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 16× | 18× | 20× (Current) | 22× | 24× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $94 | $106 | $118 | $130 | $142 |
| Conservative (7%) | $97 | $109 | $121 | $133 | $145 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $100 | $112 | $125 | $137 | $150 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $103 | $116 | $129 | $142 | $154 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 19.28 | 18.82 | 13.80 | 28.48 | 5.57 |
| EV/EBIT | 15.44 | 15.99 | 10.77 | 19.20 | 3.24 |
| EV/EBITDA | 13.47 | 14.64 | 9.31 | 17.34 | 2.74 |
| P/FCF | 16.75 | 16.49 | 13.80 | 22.34 | 2.86 |
| P/FFO | 15.34 | 14.52 | 11.80 | 21.02 | 3.78 |
| P/AFFO | 17.90 | 16.44 | 13.51 | 25.14 | 4.40 |
| P/B Ratio | 26.45 | 21.52 | 14.79 | 63.78 | 17.26 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.10 | 3.05 | 2.18 | 3.94 | 0.61 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates NTAP's fair value at $196.96 vs the current price of $112.08, implying +75.7% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 85/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $196.96 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $146.34 (P10) to $218.76 (P90), with a median of $180.88.
NTAP's current P/E of 19.8x compares to the industry median of 58.7x (6 peers in the group). This represents a -66.3% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 19.3x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
70 analysts cover NTAP with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $120.50 (range: $89.00 — $137.00), implying +7.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (26), Hold (35), Sell (9), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 85/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: NTAP trades at the 4550th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (19.3×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that NTAP's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.6σ, meaning margins are 0.6 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (16.5%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1090.0% to approximately $100. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.