MODEL VERDICT
Nutrien Ltd. (NTR)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.48 | $75.22 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.52 | $71.57 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.50 | $70.62 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.45 | $73.35 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.47 | $73.75 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 6 analyst estimates | $80.29 | +6.7% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 6 industry peers | $81.86 | +8.8% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $102.79 | +36.7% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 5 industry peers | $65.88 | -12.4% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 6 industry peers | $92.36 | +22.8% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 5 industry peers | $60.40 | -19.7% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 4 industry peers | $137.19 | +82.4% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 7 industry peers | $77.23 | +2.7% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 7 industry peers | $68.95 | -8.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $100.62 | +33.8% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 5 industry peers | $62.01 | -17.6% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $86.23 | +14.6% | 100% | 89 | SLIGHTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 12× | 14× | 16× (Current) | 18× | 20× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (16%) | $66 | $77 | $88 | $99 | $110 |
| Conservative (27%) | $72 | $84 | $96 | $108 | $120 |
| Base Case (41.0%) | $80 | $94 | $107 | $120 | $134 |
| Bull Case (55%) | $88 | $103 | $118 | $133 | $147 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 24.50 | 22.26 | 5.36 | 56.66 | 16.99 |
| EV/EBIT | 17.37 | 14.59 | 4.69 | 41.35 | 11.79 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.84 | 6.63 | 3.94 | 12.92 | 2.97 |
| P/FCF | 14.54 | 15.47 | 7.00 | 21.46 | 4.46 |
| P/FFO | 7.94 | 8.17 | 4.08 | 11.21 | 2.35 |
| P/TBV | 3.19 | 3.30 | 2.09 | 4.70 | 0.86 |
| P/AFFO | 20.38 | 25.75 | 5.48 | 33.85 | 10.34 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.28 | 1.22 | 0.91 | 1.81 | 0.30 |
| Div Yield | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 0.05 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.17 | 1.10 | 0.85 | 1.55 | 0.25 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates NTR's fair value at $86.23 vs the current price of $75.22, implying +14.6% upside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Undervalued. Confidence: 89/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $86.23 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $70.80 (P10) to $93.99 (P90), with a median of $81.99.
NTR's current P/E of 15.9x compares to the industry median of 21.7x (6 peers in the group). This represents a -26.8% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 24.5x over 7 years. Signal: Discount.
33 analysts cover NTR with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $84.25 (range: $75.00 — $100.00), implying +12.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (20), Hold (10), Sell (3), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 89/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that NTR's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.1σ, meaning margins are 0.1 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (12.8%), the model estimates fair value drops by 13470.0% to approximately $177. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.