MODEL VERDICT
NovoCure Limited (NVCR)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $16.62 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $12.47 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $12.83 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $12.17 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $10.58 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $23.52 | +41.5% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $24.36 | +46.6% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $35.59 | +114.2% | 100% | 58 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 419.58 | 365.83 | 132.55 | 814.09 | 307.75 |
| P/TBV | 18.72 | 17.40 | 4.23 | 39.54 | 14.74 |
| P/B Ratio | 18.72 | 17.40 | 4.23 | 39.54 | 14.74 |
| P/S Ratio | 14.41 | 14.27 | 2.20 | 38.11 | 12.91 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 5 valuation metrics, the model estimates NVCR's fair value at $35.59 vs the current price of $16.62, implying +114.2% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 58/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $35.59 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $19.04 (P10) to $55.14 (P90), with a median of $35.28.
NVCR's current P/E of -13.6x compares to the industry median of 23.5x (6 peers in the group). This represents a -158.0% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
15 analysts cover NVCR with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $33.50 (range: $20.00 — $47.00), implying +101.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (9), Hold (5), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 58/100, based on: data completeness (6), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for NVCR.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.