MODEL VERDICT
Nova Ltd. (NVMI)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $494.49 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $542.95 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $528.76 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $517.43 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $496.06 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 10 analyst estimates | $448.31 | -9.3% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 6 industry peers | $305.71 | -38.2% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $330.32 | -33.2% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 8 industry peers | $347.66 | -29.7% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 7 industry peers | $241.53 | -51.2% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 9 industry peers | $359.22 | -27.4% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 6 industry peers | $401.32 | -18.8% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $167.00 | -66.2% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $175.26 | -64.6% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 8 industry peers | $321.01 | -35.1% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 8 industry peers | $307.02 | -37.9% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $327.45 | -33.8% | 100% | 85 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 72× | 79× | 86× (Current) | 93× | 100× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (15%) | $474 | $520 | $566 | $612 | $658 |
| Conservative (24%) | $511 | $561 | $611 | $660 | $710 |
| Base Case (36.1%) | $563 | $618 | $673 | $728 | $783 |
| Bull Case (49%) | $616 | $676 | $736 | $796 | $856 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 31.07 | 32.10 | 12.05 | 46.96 | 12.38 |
| EV/EBIT | 27.72 | 29.14 | 10.46 | 39.32 | 10.19 |
| EV/EBITDA | 25.80 | 30.62 | 9.28 | 36.78 | 9.72 |
| P/FCF | 35.01 | 34.27 | 20.21 | 55.65 | 11.58 |
| P/FFO | 27.41 | 28.91 | 10.56 | 42.81 | 11.08 |
| P/TBV | 5.91 | 5.90 | 2.62 | 9.68 | 2.35 |
| P/AFFO | 33.28 | 34.41 | 11.22 | 49.30 | 13.73 |
| P/B Ratio | 5.37 | 5.50 | 2.33 | 9.22 | 2.27 |
| P/S Ratio | 6.86 | 7.59 | 2.61 | 10.50 | 2.90 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates NVMI's fair value at $327.45 vs the current price of $494.49, implying -33.8% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 85/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $327.45 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $276.88 (P10) to $335.11 (P90), with a median of $305.77.
NVMI's current P/E of 86.0x compares to the industry median of 57.4x (7 peers in the group). This represents a +49.7% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 31.1x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
12 analysts cover NVMI with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $489.50 (range: $453.00 — $520.00), implying -1.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (12), Hold (0), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 85/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: NVMI trades at the 7020th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (31.1×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that NVMI's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.9σ, meaning margins are 0.9 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (24.9%), the model estimates fair value drops by 6940.0% to approximately $151. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.