MODEL VERDICT
Nova Ltd. (NVMI) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $438.86 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $441.24 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $443.76 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $460.80 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $394.07 | Below threshold | +17.7% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 64 analyst estimates | $335.26 | -23.6% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 54 industry peers | $238.63 | -45.6% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 47 industry peers | $242.40 | -44.8% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 49 industry peers | $333.07 | -24.1% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 51 industry peers | $247.48 | -43.6% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 54 industry peers | $325.25 | -25.9% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 25 industry peers | $337.53 | -23.1% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 74 industry peers | $205.35 | -53.2% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 74 industry peers | $213.61 | -51.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 48 industry peers | $247.19 | -43.7% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 53 industry peers | $344.97 | -21.4% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $281.30 | -35.9% | 100% | 87 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 64× | 70× | 76× (Current) | 82× | 88× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (15%) | $421 | $461 | $500 | $540 | $579 |
| Conservative (24%) | $454 | $497 | $540 | $582 | $625 |
| Base Case (36.1%) | $501 | $548 | $595 | $642 | $689 |
| Bull Case (49%) | $548 | $599 | $650 | $702 | $753 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 31.07 | 32.10 | 12.05 | 46.96 | 12.38 |
| EV/EBIT | 27.72 | 29.14 | 10.46 | 39.32 | 10.19 |
| EV/EBITDA | 25.80 | 30.62 | 9.28 | 36.78 | 9.72 |
| P/FCF | 35.01 | 34.27 | 20.21 | 55.65 | 11.58 |
| P/FFO | 27.41 | 28.91 | 10.56 | 42.81 | 11.08 |
| P/TBV | 5.91 | 5.90 | 2.62 | 9.68 | 2.35 |
| P/AFFO | 33.28 | 34.41 | 11.22 | 49.30 | 13.73 |
| P/B Ratio | 5.37 | 5.50 | 2.33 | 9.22 | 2.27 |
| P/S Ratio | 6.86 | 7.59 | 2.61 | 10.50 | 2.90 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates NVMI's fair value at $281.30 vs the current price of $438.86, implying -35.9% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 87/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $281.30 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $223.05 (P10) to $306.81 (P90), with a median of $264.62.
NVMI's current P/E of 76.3x compares to the industry median of 42.2x (47 peers in the group). This represents a +81.0% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 31.1x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
12 analysts cover NVMI with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $489.50 (range: $453.00 — $520.00), implying +11.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (12), Hold (0), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 87/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: NVMI trades at the 7450th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (31.1×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that NVMI's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.9σ, meaning margins are 0.9 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (24.9%), the model estimates fair value drops by 6550.0% to approximately $151. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.