MODEL VERDICT
Envista Holdings Corp (NVST)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $26.33 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $26.80 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $27.84 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $27.03 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $26.39 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 6 analyst estimates | $20.66 | -21.5% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 6 industry peers | $24.34 | -7.6% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 4 industry peers | $7.75 | -70.6% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 7 industry peers | $29.83 | +13.3% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 5 industry peers | $21.96 | -16.6% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 7 industry peers | $30.28 | +15.0% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 2 industry peers | $2.21 | -91.6% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $42.34 | +60.8% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $40.49 | +53.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 5 industry peers | $7.83 | -70.3% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 7 industry peers | $30.10 | +14.3% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $24.18 | -8.2% | 100% | 80 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 78× | 86× | 94× (Current) | 102× | 110× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $22 | $25 | $27 | $29 | $31 |
| Conservative (5%) | $23 | $25 | $28 | $30 | $32 |
| Base Case (1.5%) | $22 | $24 | $27 | $29 | $31 |
| Bull Case (2%) | $22 | $25 | $27 | $29 | $31 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 56.96 | 30.45 | 21.96 | 129.73 | 46.53 |
| EV/EBIT | 25.67 | 22.10 | 14.44 | 51.92 | 13.30 |
| EV/EBITDA | 22.35 | 19.18 | 14.74 | 37.62 | 8.94 |
| P/FCF | 23.35 | 18.46 | 10.97 | 55.89 | 15.34 |
| P/FFO | 38.93 | 25.30 | 11.68 | 113.44 | 38.33 |
| P/AFFO | 37.78 | 19.59 | 15.07 | 87.88 | 30.70 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.33 | 1.18 | 0.96 | 1.97 | 0.34 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.06 | 1.77 | 1.32 | 3.19 | 0.75 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates NVST's fair value at $24.18 vs the current price of $26.33, implying -8.2% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 80/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $24.18 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $21.98 (P10) to $29.01 (P90), with a median of $25.36.
NVST's current P/E of 94.0x compares to the industry median of 27.7x (4 peers in the group). This represents a +239.8% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 57.0x over 5 years. Signal: High Premium.
19 analysts cover NVST with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $27.00 (range: $19.00 — $35.00), implying +2.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (7), Hold (11), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 80/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: NVST trades at the 7500th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (57.0×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for NVST.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.